Trump Has Created an ‘Existential Moment’ for NATO, But Alliance Will Survive, CFR’s Kupchan Says
Reflecto News | Geopolitics & Trans-Atlantic Relations
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump has created an “existential moment” for NATO and the broader U.S.-European partnership — a test that has raised fears the alliance might not survive his administration — but the transatlantic bond will ultimately weather the storm, according to leading Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) expert Charles Kupchan.
Kupchan, a former White House official and senior director for European affairs under President Barack Obama, argued that while Trump has pushed the alliance to its limits, fundamental structural and public support factors will prevent its collapse.
“Trump has created an existential moment for NATO & the US-European partnership – one that’s feared it may not survive his era. My best guess: it will survive. The US & Europe will remain each other’s best partners.”
— Prof. Charles Kupchan, CFR
📢 Three Pillars of Resilience
Kupchan identified three key pillars that he believes will keep the transatlantic partnership intact:
1. Congressional Support
“Congress is still strongly supportive — both Republicans & Democrats,” Kupchan noted. The Senate voted 95-3 in 2023 to oppose any withdrawal from NATO, a margin that has not eroded. The House also passed a similar resolution by a vote of 423-6. Even with Trump in office, the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) included language reaffirming the U.S. commitment to NATO and reiterating that withdrawal would require Senate approval.
2. Public Opinion
“The American public still supports NATO,” Kupchan said. According to a 2026 Chicago Council on Global Affairs survey, 59% of Americans view NATO as “very important” to U.S. security, a number that has remained surprisingly stable since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Even among self-identified MAGA Republicans, support for NATO has dropped but remains above 50%.
3. Inertia of the Bureaucratic State
While Trump can give speeches and post threats on Truth Social, Kupchan noted that actual withdrawal would require a lengthy interagency process involving the Pentagon, State Department, and intelligence community — all of which are staffed by pro-NATO personnel. A formal withdrawal would also require a two-thirds vote in the Senate, which is unlikely to be obtained.
🌍 Diverging Interests Over the Iran War
Kupchan identified the root cause of the current rupture: Trump’s anger that European allies refused to join the US-Israeli war effort against Iran, which began with strikes by both nations on Iranian nuclear facilities on February 28.
“Trump talks openly about withdrawing. He’s angry that Europeans aren’t helping in the Persian Gulf & that Iran war didn’t go as expected,” Kupchan explained.
Key NATO contributions withheld:
- Spain: Barred the US from using its bases and airspace for Iran-related operations
- Italy: Refused to provide basing or overflight permission
- Germany: Refused to send naval assets to help enforce the blockade
Kupchan noted that the war in Iran — which triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — did not unfold as Trump promised. Predictions that the regime would swiftly collapse have proven false, and the US is now locked in a slow-moving naval conflict with no end in sight.
🧠 ‘Trump Is an Outlier’
Kupchan characterized the president as an ideological outlier in the history of U.S. foreign policy, combining three distinct and often contradictory impulses:
- Unilateralist: Favoring action without allies (e.g., the initial decision to strike Iran with only Israel’s backing)
- Neo-isolationist: Wanting to reduce the U.S. global footprint, especially in Europe
- Neo-imperialist: Pursuing tariffs and trade wars (against China, the EU, Canada) rather than the open trade system the US helped build
The irony, according to Kupchan, is that Trump’s unilateralist and neo-isolationist streaks are driving him to abandon allies, while his neo-imperialist urge to impose tariffs is hurting the very American workers he claims to defend.
🔮 What Comes Next for the US-Europe Partnership
Kupchan predicted that even if Trump were to win a second term (which he is currently serving), the damage to trust between the two sides of the Atlantic would be lasting but not fatal.
Steps Europe should take:
- Increase defense spending (Germany’s Zeitenwende, the new €100 billion fund, has been a start)
- Build capacity to act without the US (the European Union’s Strategic Compass process, the “European Political Community”)
- Maintain dialogue with the US Congress, which is more stable than the White House
Steps the US should take:
- Reassure allies through concrete actions (the recent deployment of an additional Armored Brigade Combat Team to Poland helped, but Trump’s rhetoric undercuts it)
- Clarify that the Iran war is a separate issue from NATO’s core mission of deterring Russia
- Remember that the US benefits from allies: basing rights, intelligence sharing, and access to the world’s largest free trade zone
Kupchan does not sugarcoat the damage. “Trump is an outlier — sort of unilateralist, neo-isolationist & neo-imperialist. He believes in tariffs rather than the open trade that Americans & Europeans built together,” he said.
But he views the resilience of institutions — and the deep alignment of interests beneath the surface of daily Trump headlines — as strong enough to outlast Trump’s time in office.
📋 Key Takeaways
| Aspect | Summary |
|---|---|
| Kupchan’s Diagnosis | Trump has created an “existential moment” — but NATO will survive |
| Why Survive? | Congress (bipartisan), public opinion, bureaucratic inertia |
| Trump’s Ideology | Unilateralist, neo-isolationist, neo-imperialist — “an outlier” |
| Trigger of Feud | Europeans refused to join Iran war effort (Spain, Italy, Germany) |
| Trump’s View | Angry the war “didn’t go as expected” |
| Kupchan’s Prediction | Alliance will survive, but trust will be damaged |
| Recommendation | Europe build capacity; US reassure allies; both remember common interests |
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