Kupchan: Trans‑Atlantic Relations at Most Fragile Moment Since Pre‑WWII Era
Reflecto News | Geopolitics | US-Europe Relations
NEW YORK — Professor Charles Kupchan, a leading expert on trans‑atlantic relations at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), has warned that the U.S.-European partnership is experiencing its most fragile and uncertain moment since the period before World War II.
In comments shared on social media, Kupchan — a former White House official and senior director for European affairs — described the current rupture as more serious than previous trans‑atlantic spats over Iraq or trade, arguing that President Donald Trump’s challenge to NATO and the post‑war liberal order has no parallel in modern history.
“Many Europeans are in shock – not knowing if Trump is a passing detour or the new normal. This is an inflection point. Some Europeans & Americans say it’s the beginning of the end of the Atlantic relationship. Others say it’s a detour & the two sides will come together again when Trump leaves. We don’t know. But this is the most fragile, uncertain moment in the Atlantic relationship since the pre-WW2 era.”
— Prof. Charles Kupchan, CFR
🤷 ‘Passing Detour’ or ‘New Normal’?
European leaders, Kupchan explained, are now engaged in a difficult internal debate: is Trump an aberration produced by the specific political circumstances of the 2024 election, or a sign of a long‑term shift in American foreign policy away from alliance‑based multilateralism?
Factors supporting the ‘passing detour’ view:
- Congress remains strongly pro‑NATO (bills to block withdrawal passed with veto‑proof majorities in 2023 and 2025)
- The public still supports the alliance, with 59% of Americans viewing NATO as “very important” in the latest Chicago Council survey
- Trump will leave office in 2–4 years due to term limits, and no obvious successor shares his hostility to NATO
Factors supporting the ‘new normal’ view:
- Trumpism may outlast Trump; the Republican Party has shifted toward a more isolationist, transactional view of foreign policy
- Even Democrats talk about “reshaping NATO” to put more burden on European members
- The experience of Trump’s first term (2017-2021) — and the public’s decision to re‑elect him in 2024 — suggests his approach is not a one‑time anomaly
- The infrastructure of trans‑atlantic cooperation (NATO, EU‑US summits) has been allowed to atrophy
⚠️ ‘Inflection Point’
Kupchan’s description of the current moment as an “inflection point” indicates that the choices made by leaders on both sides of the Atlantic over the next 12–24 months will likely set the course for the relationship for the next decade or more.
Likely outcomes of an inflection point:
- A managed slide: Europe invests heavily in its own defense, reducing dependence on the US, while the US focuses on China—but both sides remain allies (just more distant and strained)
- Full break: Europe decides it cannot rely on the US under any circumstances and builds a parallel security architecture (an “EU army”), while the US imposes tariffs and forces bilateral deals
- Cold peace: Status quo continues, but trust is permanently damaged, and cooperation becomes transactional rather than based on shared values
🌍 Why This Moment Is Different from Past Disputes
Kupchan’s reference to the pre‑WWII era is deliberate. Before the war, the United States pursued a policy of isolationism, refusing to commit to Europe’s defense.
- Iraq War (2003) : The trans‑atlantic rift was serious, but it was a disagreement over a specific policy (invading Iraq), not the alliance’s existence
- Cold War : Despite occasional spats (Suez Crisis, Vietnam War, the “Euromissile” crisis of the 1970s), both sides agreed on the need to contain the Soviet Union
- Trump era : The president has questioned the value of NATO itself, demanded European “payment” for US protection, and refused to commit to defend allies under attack
🔮 What Comes Next: Scenarios
Kupchan’s analysis suggests that the next 6–12 months will be crucial for testing whether the relationship stabilizes or fractures further.
| Scenario | Trigger | Likelihood in 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Fragile but enduring | Trump’s threats fail to materialize; Europe increases defense spending; Congress blocks withdrawal | Most likely |
| Managed decoupling | Trump pulls some troops from Germany; Europe accelerates EU defense plans; alliance weakens but holds | |
| Full rupture | Trump withdraws from NATO (unlikely), imposes crippling tariffs on EU; Europe aligns with China | Least likely |
📉 Europe’s Dilemma: Prepare for US Withdrawal
European leaders are already taking steps to reduce their dependence on the United States:
- Germany’s Zeitenwende : €100 billion defense fund; commitment to 2%+ of GDP
- EU Strategic Compass : Plan to deploy 5,000 troops for crisis response by 2027
- European Sky Shield Initiative : 17 countries cooperating on air defense without US leadership
- France’s nuclear umbrella : President Macron has opened a dialogue about extending French nuclear protection to European partners
But Europe remains years away from being able to fully replace US capabilities in intelligence, logistics, airlift, and strategic nuclear deterrence.
Kupchan concluded that while the relationship may survive Trump, the trust that once made it “special” has been shattered. Even if Democrats return to power in 2028, European leaders will remember that half the American electorate twice voted for a man who threatened to abandon them. That memory will shape policy for a generation.
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