Strait of Hormuz Shipping Traffic Plunges Over 90% Amid US-Iran War

Reflecto News | Breaking News | Global Trade & Energy

DUBAI — Shipping traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz has collapsed by more than 90 percent since the outbreak of the US-Iran war on February 28, as the critical waterway faces its most severe disruption in decades .

According to the United Nations, ship transits through the strait have decreased by 95.3 percent since the war began . Prior to the conflict, approximately 130 tankers and cargo vessels passed through the strait daily — a number that has now fallen to fewer than 10 ships per day .

🚢 Nearly 900 Ships Stranded, 20,000 Seafarers Trapped

The collapse in traffic has left between 850 and 870 large merchant vessels stranded inside the Persian Gulf, unable to safely exit due to the heightened security risks in the narrow waterway .

“Our first concern is the safety and security of seafarers. There are around 20,000 sailors on ships going nowhere. Crew changes are not happening, and supplies are becoming strained,” said Commander Jo Black, Head of Operations at the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) .

UKMTO has recorded over 40 security-related incidents between March 1 and April 27, including attacks, vessel damage, harassment, and near-misses . At least 26 of those incidents involved direct attacks on merchant vessels.

📊 Global Economic Fallout

The closure of the waterway, through which approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil supply normally passes, has triggered significant volatility in global energy and commodity markets .

• Commodity food prices have risen by 6 percent since the war began
• European crude oil benchmarks have surged by 53 percent
• Global trade growth forecasts have been slashed from 4.7 percent to just 1.5 percent

🔒 Iran’s Leverage and US Counter-Blockade

The strait has faced disruptions since early March following Iran’s retaliatory closure of the waterway. Tehran has used its control of the strategic chokepoint as leverage in negotiations with the United States, while the US has imposed its own naval blockade on vessels traveling to or from Iranian ports .

This dual pressure — American blockade measures combined with Iranian interdiction protocols — has effectively created a no-go zone for commercial shipping, with maritime insurers reportedly suspending coverage for vessels attempting the passage .

🚚 Supply Chains Reroute via Africa

With the Strait of Hormuz largely impassable and the Red Sea also disrupted by Houthi attacks, global shipping lines have been forced to reroute cargo around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa .

According to supply chain experts, 70 percent of freight traffic that passed through the Red Sea in 2023 is now being rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope. Transport times between Asia and Europe have lengthened by an average of two weeks, with costs rising 30 to 50 percent due to additional fuel requirements and vessel needs .

Between March 1 and April 24 this year, an average of 20 commercial vessels rounded the Cape of Good Hope daily — compared with just six during the same period in 2023 .

⏳ A Fragile Ceasefire

The conflict is currently on hold under a fragile ceasefire, while diplomatic efforts continue to reach a lasting agreement . However, with the strait remaining largely closed and over 20,000 seafarers stranded, the window for a diplomatic solution is narrowing. Prolonged disruption threatens to further destabilize global food and energy markets, with the UN warning of severe consequences for especially import-dependent nations .

📋 Key Takeaways

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