Iran Says It Is Preparing for Resumption of War, Has a “New and Specific” Way to Target the US and Allies
Tehran states that its armed forces have drawn up a new “third struggle” strategy aimed at striking American and allied assets, as the ceasefire teeters on the brink of collapse following a week of halted diplomatic progress.
TEHRAN — The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iran’s armed forces have announced they are preparing for the potential “resumption of war” with the United States and have devised a “new and specific” strategy to target American and allied interests, Iranian state-linked media reported on Saturday .
The declaration came as Tehran formally closed portions of its western airspace through a Notice to Air Missions (NOTAM) until Monday morning, intensifying speculation that the current lull in fighting could end abruptly . The move coincides with reports that President Donald Trump is leaning toward approving a fresh round of military strikes unless there is a dramatic diplomatic breakthrough within the next 24 hours .
The “New and Specific” Strategy: What We Know
Iranian military planners have drawn up what officials describe as a “third struggle” strategy . While official sources have not detailed the precise nature of this new approach, available evidence and recent strategic analyses indicate that Tehran has fundamentally shifted its war-fighting doctrine to neutralize American and Israeli military superiority .
The new strategy appears to rest on two major pillars that have proven effective during the conflict:
1. The “Mosaic Defence” and Decentralized Warfare
US intelligence has determined that Iran has restarted parts of its drone and missile production during the ceasefire period, rebuilding military capabilities “much faster than initially estimated” . Analysts attribute this resilience to Iran’s “mosaic defence” doctrine — a strategy developed after observing how centralised regimes collapsed during the US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan .
Under this approach:
- Manufacturing is dispersed across smaller, often underground facilities
- Command authority is fragmented across semi-autonomous provincial networks
- Supply chains are made redundant so production can continue even after major strikes
- The system is specifically designed to survive decapitation strikes
“The Iranians have exceeded all timelines the IC (intelligence community) had for reconstitution,” a US official told CNN, expressing surprise at how quickly Tehran has restored its military industrial base .
Some US intelligence assessments now suggest Iran could restore full drone strike capability within six months .
2. Targeting the “Fragile Link”: Gulf Allies
The second and perhaps most innovative aspect of Iran’s new strategy is its pivot toward a “triple coercion” approach, which shifts pressure from direct confrontation with the US to targeting the vital interests of third parties with strategic ties to Washington .
Analysts and strategic experts believe Iran has identified Gulf countries as the “fragile link” in the American equation . Rather than attempting to overwhelm US air defenses directly, Tehran has focused on crippling energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar.
“Iran now possesses a geopolitical ‘insurance policy’ that prevents its adversaries from considering launching comprehensive attacks in the future,” a recent analysis in Al-Quds concluded .
Why Standard Military Options Are Failing
Despite President Trump’s repeated claims that the US has “decimated” Iran’s military, the reality on the ground tells a different story.
The Drone War Conundrum
Tehran has deliberately structured its drone industry to survive exactly this kind of military campaign. Unlike centralized defense industries concentrated in a handful of giant factories, Iran’s military-industrial ecosystem evolved under decades of sanctions and sabotage operations .
| Factor | Impact on US Strategy |
|---|---|
| Decentralized Production | Destroying one factory rarely destroys the network |
| Cheap, Scalable Systems | Iran produces low-cost drones that exhaust expensive US interceptors |
| Commercially Adaptable | Many components come from open-market sources, making reconstruction easier |
| Regional Manufacturing | Proxies like Hezbollah and Houthis now locally assemble drones |
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) notes that drones are no longer “auxiliary strike systems” but central tools of modern warfare. This creates an uncomfortable economic equation: Iran produces relatively cheap drones, while defenders spend expensive interceptor missiles to stop them. Even intercepted drones impose financial strain — a war of exhaustion that favors Tehran .
The “Phantom” Minefield
One of Iran’s most effective asymmetric weapons has been its naval mining campaign in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian forces deployed what are believed to be advanced “remote-floating” or GPS-guided mines using small, fast-moving boats .
Crucially, due to the haphazard method of deployment, Iran may not even know exactly where all of its own mines are — some may have drifted due to currents or were never accurately recorded .
“Tehran now holds a clear advantage, while the United States appears to be in disarray as a result of targeting the weakest links in its alliance system,” a recent strategic analysis found .
Preparing for War While “Open” to Diplomacy
Iran’s Foreign Ministry has maintained that it remains open to negotiations, even as its military prepares for conflict .
“The focus of the negotiations is on ending the war,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said recently. However, he also confirmed that detailed discussions on Iran’s nuclear program have been “set aside entirely” at this stage due to what he described as “excessive American demands” [citation:previous coverage].
The dual posture — readiness for war combined with openness to diplomacy — is characteristic of Iran’s approach throughout the conflict. It allows Tehran to test the limits of American patience while preparing for the worst.
What “New and Specific” Could Mean in Practice
Analysts and recent intelligence reports suggest the “new and specific” targeting strategy could manifest in several ways:
Potential Targeting Scenarios
| Scenario | Details |
|---|---|
| Expanded Gulf Energy Strikes | Targeting critical oil refineries (like Lavan Island) or export terminals (Kharg Island) to cripple the regime’s primary source of revenue |
| Asymmetric Naval Tactics | Reports suggest Iran is considering unconventional methods in the Strait of Hormuz, including the potential use of dolphins equipped with mines to strike US warships |
| Proxy Front Intensification | Iran’s proxy network (Hezbollah, Houthis, Kataib Hezbollah) could be activated for sustained, deniable pressure across the region |
| Global Interest Targeting | Iran has previously developed target lists for US and allied interests outside the Middle East as part of its “offensive deterrence” strategy |
The most disruptive potential action remains a renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz — if Iran escalates its mining campaign or expands its blockade, the impact on global oil prices would be immediate and severe.
The Ceasefire’s Fragile State
The current ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan in early April, has held for more than six weeks, but it has been described as increasingly precarious. Talks between US and Iranian officials, conducted indirectly through Pakistani and Qatari mediators, have shown little progress on core issues:
- Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile: The US demands it be sent abroad; Iran refuses [citation:previous coverage]
- The Strait of Hormuz: The US demands free navigation; Iran insists on some form of control
- Sanctions relief: Iran demands immediate lifting; the US insists on full compliance first
With both sides holding firm on these issues and military preparations accelerating, the window for a diplomatic resolution appears to be closing rapidly.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1: What is the “new and specific” strategy Iran has announced?
A: According to Iranian state-linked media, Iran’s military planners have drawn up a new “third struggle” strategy aimed at targeting US interests and allied assets in a “new and specific” manner. While exact details remain classified, analysts believe it centers on a “mosaic defence” approach (decentralizing production to survive strikes) and a “triple coercion” strategy (targeting US Gulf allies as the “fragile link” in the American alliance system) .
Q2: How has Iran rebuilt its military capabilities during the ceasefire?
A: US intelligence assessments have concluded that Iran has restarted parts of its drone and missile production, rebuilding far faster than initial estimates. Some assessments suggest Iran could restore full drone strike capability within six months. Factors include external support from Russia and China, a decentralized “mosaic defence” structure that survived strikes, and the possibility that US-Israeli attacks caused less damage than claimed .
Q3: Is Iran closing its airspace?
A: Yes, Iran has reportedly closed portions of its western airspace until Monday morning through a NOTAM (Notice to Air Missions), intensifying speculation over possible military action in the region .
Q4: What unconventional tactics is Iran reportedly considering?
A: Reports indicate Iran is exploring the use of Soviet-acquired, mine-equipped dolphins to target US warships in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as deploying submarines in the strategic waterway. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has also threatened to cut key telecommunications cables running through the strait .
Q5: Why has the ceasefire been unsuccessful in ending the war?
A: Despite the halt in major hostilities, the core issues remain unresolved. The US demands Iran transfer its enriched uranium stockpile abroad and guarantee free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran refuses to cede its nuclear rights or accept what it views as “excessive American demands.” Talks have stalled, with drafts going back and forth daily without meaningful progress [citation:previous coverage].
Q6: Is the war likely to resume?
A: With President Trump reportedly leaning toward approving fresh strikes and Iran preparing for a resumption of war, the risk remains significant. However, no final decision has been made, and both sides continue indirect diplomatic engagement through Pakistani and Qatari mediators .
This is a developing story. Reflecto News will continue to provide updates on Iran’s military preparations, the status of the ceasefire, and any decision by President Trump regarding new strikes.