Trump: Iran Wants Strait Open to Make $500 Million a Day, but ‘Save Face’ Due to US Blockade
Published on Reflecto News | World News | Energy Security & Geopolitics
President Donald Trump has doubled down on his claim that Iran secretly wants the Strait of Hormuz fully reopened, arguing that Tehran is losing an estimated $500 million per day in oil revenue due to the US naval blockade. In a series of Truth Social posts, Trump asserted that Iranian leaders are only pretending to want the strait closed to “save face” in the face of American pressure .
“Iran doesn’t want the Strait of Hormuz closed, they want it open so they can make $500 Million Dollars a day (which is, therefore, what they are losing if it is closed!). They only say they want it closed because I have it totally BLOCKADED (CLOSED!), so they merely want to ‘save face.'” — President Donald Trump
‘They Want It Open’
Trump’s latest comments reinforce his earlier assertion that Iranian leaders have privately signaled their desire to restore traffic through the vital waterway but are constrained by domestic political pressures. The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 percent of the world’s oil passes, has been largely restricted since the outbreak of the US-Israeli war on Iran on February 28 .
The president claimed that “people approached me four days ago, saying, ‘Sir, Iran wants to open up the Strait, immediately.'” He did not identify his sources but suggested that Tehran’s private position differs sharply from its public posture .
The $500 Million-a-Day Calculation
Trump’s $500 million figure appears to be an estimate of Iran’s potential daily oil revenue if the strait were fully open and Iran could export at pre-war levels. Iran’s oil exports before the war were approximately 1.8 million barrels per day . At current global prices of roughly $90-100 per barrel, Iran’s daily revenue would indeed be in the range of $160-180 million, not $500 million—unless Trump is including other economic activity or using a different metric .
Regardless of the exact figure, the point is clear: Iran’s economy is bleeding revenue due to the blockade .
‘Save Face’
Trump’s “save face” analysis reflects the complex political dynamics within Iran. The Islamic Republic is divided between President Masoud Pezeshkian, who has signaled openness to diplomacy, and hardline factions within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the parliament, led by Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who refuse to negotiate under what they call the “shadow of threat” .
Publicly, Iran has maintained a defiant posture. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has called the US blockade an “act of war,” and Iranian state media has announced that no delegation will travel to Pakistan for talks until the blockade is lifted .
Privately, however, Trump suggests, Iranian leaders recognize that their economy is suffering and that reopening the strait is essential for recovery .
‘No Deal Without the Blockade’
Trump made clear that he will not lift the blockade without a comprehensive deal. “If we do that, there can never be a Deal with Iran, unless we blow up the rest of their Country, their leaders included!” he wrote .
The statement underscores the administration’s position that the blockade is not merely a pressure tactic but a central element of its negotiating strategy. The US will not ease economic pressure until Iran agrees to the administration’s terms, including an end to uranium enrichment, dismantlement of nuclear facilities, and surrender of enriched uranium stockpiles .
Ceasefire Extended, But Tensions Remain
President Trump extended the fragile ceasefire with Iran at Pakistan’s request, giving Tehran time to formulate a “unified proposal” for negotiations. However, hours after the extension, an IRGC gunboat opened fire on a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz, causing “heavy damage to the bridge,” according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) .
The attack underscores the gap between Trump’s claim that Iran wants the strait open and the reality of continued Iranian military action in the waterway .
What Comes Next
Trump’s claims about Iran’s financial desperation and private desire to reopen the strait suggest that the administration believes economic pressure is working. However, with Tehran publicly refusing to negotiate and continuing to attack commercial shipping, the path forward remains unclear .
| Scenario | Likelihood | Implications |
|---|---|---|
| Iran privately signals willingness | Possible | Could lead to back-channel talks |
| Public stalemate continues | Likely | Ceasefire may hold, but no progress |
| Iran makes public concession | Unlikely | Would require major shift in posture |
| Further attacks on shipping | Likely | IRGC continues to enforce closure |
Trump’s assessment offers a potential face-saving path for Tehran: if the US were to lift the blockade as part of a broader deal, Iran could claim victory. But for now, the public positions of both sides remain firmly opposed, and the strait remains a shooting gallery .
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. What did President Trump say about Iran and the Strait of Hormuz?
Trump claimed that Iran secretly wants the strait fully opened to generate oil revenue but is publicly pretending to want it closed to “save face” due to the US naval blockade .
2. How much money is Iran losing per day?
Trump estimated that Iran is losing $500 million per day, though analysts suggest the actual figure is likely lower—perhaps $160-180 million based on pre-war export levels and current oil prices .
3. Does Iran publicly want the strait open?
No. Publicly, Iranian officials have stated that the strait will not fully reopen until a final peace agreement is reached. Tehran has also demanded that the US lift its naval blockade as a precondition for further negotiations .
4. Why would Iran want the strait open?
Iran’s economy has been severely damaged by sanctions and the war. Oil exports are significantly reduced, and the country faces severe economic pressure. Reopening the strait would allow Iran to resume oil shipments and generate revenue .
5. What is the status of the ceasefire?
President Trump extended the ceasefire at Pakistan’s request. It remains in effect until Iran submits a “unified proposal” for negotiations .
6. Did Iran attack a ship after Trump spoke?
Yes. Hours after Trump’s comments, an IRGC gunboat opened fire on a container ship in the strait, causing heavy damage to the vessel’s bridge .
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