‘Not a Question of If, But When’: US Restarting Strikes on Iran as Ceasefire Crumbles
Israeli media reports reveal Israeli security officials and cabinet officials believe a new round of fighting is imminent, as US and Israeli forces make their most intensive preparations since the truce took effect.
JERUSALEM / WASHINGTON — A renewed American military strike on Iran is “not a question of if, but when,” a source familiar with US discussions told Israeli media on Monday, as diplomatic efforts to extend a fragile ceasefire appear to have reached a dead end .
The stark assessment, first reported by Israel Hayom and confirmed by multiple sources to other outlets, comes as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened his security cabinet for the second time in two days to discuss the “next step” regarding Iran following a phone call with US President Donald Trump .
According to the source, any planned attack would differ significantly from previous US-Israeli operations and could target sites that Trump has so far avoided striking during the two-and-a-half-month conflict . Israeli security officials have confirmed that “preparations and measures” have already been taken in anticipation of another possible round of fighting .
‘The Clock Is Ticking’: Trump’s Ultimatum to Tehran
The military preparations coincide with increasingly dire warnings from the White House. President Trump told the New York Post on Monday that he is “not open to any concession” toward Tehran and that Iran knows “what’s going to be happening soon” .
When asked about his earlier statement that he might accept a 20-year suspension of Iran’s uranium enrichment program, the president shut down any suggestion of flexibility: “I’m not open to anything right now. I can’t talk to you about it. Too many things are happening” .
Trump’s language has grown progressively more aggressive over the past week. On Sunday, he posted on Truth Social: “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!” .
On Monday, he doubled down, telling reporters that the Iranians “want to make a deal more than ever, because they know what is going to happen soon” and that the US was capable of inflicting “additional pain” on the Islamic Republic .
Military Buildup: Operation Epic Fury on Deck
The administration’s rhetoric has been matched by concrete military movements. According to multiple reports, Operation Epic Fury—the joint US-Israeli campaign paused when the ceasefire took effect on April 8—could resume as early as this week, possibly under a new operational name .
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has confirmed that “an escalation plan” is ready “if it is necessary” .
The scale of US military assets currently positioned in the region is formidable:
| Asset Type | Quantity |
|---|---|
| US Marines | 5,000 |
| Paratroopers (82nd Airborne) | 2,000 |
| Aircraft Carrier Strike Groups | 2 |
| Destroyers | Dozens |
| Combat Aircraft | Hundreds |
Sources: The New York Times, Kyiv Post
Special Forces Nuclear Raid
Among the options reportedly under consideration is a high-risk special forces mission to seize enriched nuclear material from the Isfahan nuclear facility. According to The New York Times, several hundred US special operations troops are already in the region for this potential mission .
Carrying out such an operation would require thousands of additional conventional troops to secure a perimeter and would carry a “high risk of casualties,” military officials told the NYT . The target: approximately 440 kilograms (970 pounds) of highly enriched uranium—enough for about ten nuclear warheads—believed to have been buried following US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities last June .
Kharg Island Seizure
Another scenario under active discussion involves an amphibious assault to seize Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export terminal in the Persian Gulf . Capturing the island would effectively strangle Iran’s oil revenue, but would also represent a significant escalation likely to draw a fierce Iranian response.
Expanded Aerial Bombardment
The Pentagon is also prepared to launch expanded, long-range aerial bombardments targeting both primary military installations and dual-use civilian infrastructure across mainland Iran—a significant broadening of targeting parameters compared to the initial campaign .
Israeli Readiness: Waiting for Trump’s Signal
Israel has placed its military on high alert and is coordinating closely with Washington on potential timelines. A senior Israeli official was quoted by Channel 12 as saying that Israel was “preparing for days to weeks of fighting and waiting for Trump’s final decision. We’ll know more in 24 hours” .
Public broadcaster Kan cited an unnamed security official as saying that Israel would join any new US strikes and would target Iranian energy infrastructure specifically . Israeli security officials have indicated that any new round is expected to last several days and is being framed as “the last one for the near future” .
The sense of imminent action has been reinforced by tangible military movements. According to Al Jazeera, citing Israel’s Channel 13, dozens of American planes carrying ammunition have landed in Israel from US bases in Germany over the past 24 hours .
Why Diplomacy Failed
The shift toward renewed military action follows weeks of stalled negotiations. A ceasefire brokered through Pakistani mediation took effect on April 8, but talks held subsequently in Islamabad failed to produce a lasting agreement .
The United States has reportedly presented Iran with a five-point proposal that includes:
- Transferring 400 kilograms of enriched uranium to the US
- Limiting operations to a single nuclear facility
- No war reparations
- Keeping most frozen Iranian assets blocked
- Accepting US terms on the Strait of Hormuz
| US Demand | Iran’s Position |
|---|---|
| Transfer 400kg enriched uranium stockpile | Refused; nuclear issues deferred |
| Long-term suspension of enrichment | Insists on “right” to enrich |
| Keep frozen assets blocked | Demands full release (estimated $100B+) |
| No war reparations | Demands compensation for US-Israeli strikes |
| US control of Strait of Hormuz | Demands Iranian sovereignty |
According to Iranian media reports, Tehran has submitted a 14-point counter-proposal that calls for ending the war on all fronts, lifting all sanctions, releasing frozen assets, paying war reparations, and recognizing Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz—with nuclear issues pushed to later rounds of negotiation .
Trump described the Iranian position as “stupid” and “garbage,” telling reporters on May 11 that the ceasefire was “on massive life support” .
Iran’s Military Resilience
Behind the diplomatic breakdown is a sobering intelligence assessment: despite absorbing weeks of punishing US-Israeli strikes, Iran’s military capabilities have proven remarkably resilient.
According to classified assessments cited by The New York Times and Kyiv Post:
- Iran has restored operational access to 30 of 33 missile positions along the Strait of Hormuz
- Tehran retains approximately 70% of its mobile missile launchers
- Approximately 70% of its pre-war ballistic inventory remains intact
- Approximately 90% of its subterranean storage bunkers are still operational
These findings contradict initial White House statements claiming the Iranian military had been “crushed” or “decimated.” The quick recovery means that even as US and Israeli forces prepare for renewed action, Iran retains a significant capability to retaliate .
Regional Responses and Concerns
The prospect of renewed fighting has drawn mixed reactions from regional powers. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have reportedly urged Trump to continue pursuing diplomacy, with their leaders personally asking him to delay a planned attack earlier this week [citation:previous coverage].
However, the calculus may be shifting. The UAE was the target of a drone strike on its Barakah Nuclear Power Plant over the weekend—the first direct targeting of the Arabian Peninsula’s only nuclear facility. While no party has claimed responsibility, Emirati officials have implicitly pointed toward Iran or its proxies [citation:previous coverage].
Saudi Arabia also reported intercepting three drones that had entered its airspace from Iraq, a potential launch point for Iran-backed militias [citation:previous coverage].
China, meanwhile, has reportedly reached an agreement in principle with the United States that Iran must not obtain nuclear weapons under any circumstances—a rare point of consensus between the two superpowers .
What a Renewed War Would Look Like
Military analysts and officials have sketched out the contours of what a renewed conflict might entail:
Phase 1: Coordinated US-Israeli Strikes
Initial attacks would likely focus on:
- Iranian air defense systems (to establish air superiority)
- Command and control centers
- Missile production and storage facilities
- Nuclear-related sites (including Fordow and Isfahan)
Phase 2: Potential Ground Operations
If Phase 1 does not achieve US objectives, planners are considering:
- A special forces raid on Isfahan to seize nuclear material
- An amphibious assault on Kharg Island to cut off oil exports
- Expanded bombing of civilian infrastructure (escalation option)
Phase 3: Iranian Retaliation
Iran retains significant retaliatory capabilities:
- Missile and drone attacks on US bases in the Gulf
- Attacks on US allies, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia
- Continued closure and potential mining of the Strait of Hormuz
- Hezbollah strikes on Israel from Lebanon
Duration
Israeli officials have reportedly been told to prepare for “days to weeks of fighting,” framed as the “last round for the near future” .
The Ceasefire’s Final Hours
As of Monday evening, the April 8 ceasefire remains technically in place—but few observers expect it to survive the week. President Trump, speaking to reporters, suggested that Gulf leaders who requested a delay had assured him they were “very close to making a deal” and asked him to hold off for “two or three days” [citation:previous coverage].
Whether those three days produce a breakthrough or simply mark the countdown to renewed war remains to be seen. One thing appears clear from the Israeli media reports, the military buildup, and the president’s own words: the clock has nearly run out.
As the source familiar with US discussions told Israel Hayom: renewed strikes are “not a question of if, but when” .
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1: What did Israeli media report about renewed US strikes on Iran?
A: Israel Hayom and other outlets quoted a source familiar with US discussions as saying a new American strike on Iran was “not a question of if, but when.” The report said any planned attack would differ from previous operations and could target sites that Trump has so far avoided striking .
Q2: What military preparations have been made?
A: The US has approximately 5,000 Marines, 2,000 paratroopers, two aircraft carrier strike groups, dozens of destroyers, and hundreds of combat aircraft in the region. Dozens of American planes carrying ammunition have landed in Israel. Special forces are in place for a potential nuclear material seizure mission .
Q3: Why have negotiations failed?
A: The US is demanding that Iran transfer 400 kilograms of enriched uranium, limit operations to one nuclear facility, and keep frozen assets blocked. Iran is demanding a complete end to the war, full sanctions lifting, release of all frozen assets (estimated over $100 billion), war reparations, and recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz—with nuclear issues deferred .
Q4: What did Trump say about Iran recently?
A: Trump posted on Truth Social that “the Clock is Ticking” for Iran and “TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE.” He told the New York Post he is “not open to any concession” and that Iran knows “what’s going to be happening soon” .
Q5: How capable is Iran’s military after two months of war?
A: Despite heavy strikes, US intelligence assessments indicate Iran has restored access to 30 of 33 missile positions along the Strait of Hormuz and retains approximately 70% of its mobile missile launchers, 70% of its pre-war ballistic inventory, and 90% of its subterranean storage bunkers .
Q6: Will Israel participate in renewed strikes?
A: Yes. Israeli officials have told media that Israel will join any new US strikes and will target Iranian energy infrastructure. The Israeli military has been placed on high alert, and security officials say they have prepared for “days to weeks of fighting” .
Q7: What is Operation Epic Fury?
A: Operation Epic Fury was the joint US-Israeli military campaign against Iran that was paused when the ceasefire took effect on April 8. Military planners have prepared an “escalation plan” to resume the operation—possibly under a new name—if diplomatic efforts collapse .
Q8: Is the ceasefire still in place?
A: Technically, yes—the April 8 ceasefire remains in effect. However, Trump has described it as “on massive life support,” and with military preparations advancing and diplomatic talks stalled, few expect it to survive the week .
This is a developing story. Reflecto News will continue to provide updates on US-Iran military developments, the status of the ceasefire, and any diplomatic last-minute efforts to avert renewed conflict.