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Reflecto News | Global Energy | Geopolitics
MOSCOW — The Kremlin has firmly stated that Russia has no intention of following the United Arab Emirates out of OPEC+, reaffirming its commitment to the oil alliance even as the group faces its first major rupture in years following Abu Dhabi’s surprise departure . Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, “No,” when asked whether Russia was considering withdrawing from the format .
The announcement comes just one day after the UAE declared it would exit both OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance effective May 1, 2026, dealing a significant blow to the cartel amid an unprecedented global energy crisis triggered by the Iran war .
🤝 ‘We Respect Their Sovereign Decision’
Peskov emphasized that Russia respects the UAE’s choice to leave and does not view the departure as a sign of impending collapse for the organization .
“This is a sovereign decision of the United Arab Emirates, and we respect it. We hope that this format—OPEC+—will be preserved and that it will continue to operate. This format helps to substantially minimize fluctuations in energy markets and makes it possible to stabilize those markets.”
— Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin Spokesman
Peskov also welcomed statements from Abu Dhabi that it will continue to take a responsible position in energy markets, and expressed hope that Moscow’s “constructive and effective” energy dialogue with the Gulf state would continue .
Despite the public show of unity, the decision to publicly clarify Russia’s position highlights concerns that other members might question the future of the alliance following the departure of the UAE—historically the fourth-largest producer in OPEC+. Russia remains the second-largest producer in the group, behind Saudi Arabia .
📊 Russia Stays, but What About Production Policy?
While Moscow has ruled out leaving the organization, questions remain about how production policy will function after May 1:
| Country | Membership Status as of May 1, 2026 | Production Role |
|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | OPEC+ Leader | Largest producer in OPEC |
| Russia | Remaining in OPEC+ | Second-largest producer |
| UAE | Exiting OPEC & OPEC+ | Fourth-largest producer (was within OPEC+) |
Russia’s decision to stay was signaled by Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, who stated on Tuesday that if OPEC countries begin acting “in an uncoordinated manner,” it could lead to increased production and lower prices—a scenario Moscow likely wants to avoid given its reliance on higher oil revenues to fund its war in Ukraine .
The Iran war—which has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off approximately 20% of global oil supply—has already sent prices soaring to roughly $111 per barrel. An uncoordinated OPEC+ “free-for-all” in the wake of the UAE’s exit could lead to a price war just as global markets are most vulnerable .
📝 A ‘Business as Usual’ Message
By swiftly ruling out an exit, the Kremlin is sending a signal to global markets that it remains committed to coordinated supply management. “OPEC+ is a very important area of work, particularly crucial in the current climate, when energy markets are, to put it mildly, in turmoil,” Peskov said .
However, the future effectiveness of the cartel is now in question. The UAE’s departure marks the first major crack in the oil alliance since Russia joined OPEC+ in 2016. While Moscow insists it is staying, the loss of the Gulf’s fourth-largest producer leaves a gap in spare capacity and voting power just as Saudi Arabia and Russia must make difficult decisions about balancing the budget of the world’s largest oil producers .
📋 Key Takeaways for Reflecto News Readers
| Aspect | Summary |
|---|---|
| Official Stance | “No” — Russia not considering withdrawal from OPEC+ |
| Regarding UAE Exit | Kremlin respects UAE’s “sovereign decision” to leave |
| Future of OPEC+ | Moscow hopes format will survive and continue stabilizing markets |
| Bilateral Ties | Energy dialogue with Abu Dhabi to continue despite withdrawal |
| Context | UAE was fourth-largest producer; departure first major rupture since Russia joined in 2016 |
| Global Situation | Iran war has shut Hormuz, spiking oil prices to ~$111/barrel |
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