Chatham House’s Ash: Ignoring Türkiye’s 400,000-Strong Army & Defense Industry Would Be ‘Idiotic’
Reflecto News | Europe | Security & Geopolitics
LONDON — Russia and Eurasia expert Timothy Ash has launched a blistering critique of European leaders who downplay Türkiye’s strategic importance, arguing that dismissing Ankara’s military and industrial might would be “idiotic” as the continent faces an existential threat from Russia .
The comments, made to Anadolu Ajansı, come in direct response to recent remarks by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who listed Türkiye alongside Russia and China as a “foreign influence” Europe must resist. Ash reframed the relationship: not as a threat, but as the only rapid solution to Europe’s defense crisis.
“It would be idiotic to ignore what Türkiye brings to the table. 400,000 battle-hardened soldiers, thousands of main battle tanks and armored personnel carriers — and a military industrial complex built over 20 years while Europe was de-industrializing.”
— Timothy Ash, Associate Fellow, Chatham House
🛡️ What Türkiye Brings: The Numbers
Ash’s central argument is that Europe has an urgent need for large-scale conventional ground forces, munitions, and equipment — and Türkiye is the only partner that can fill the gap immediately.
| Capability | Türkiye’s Assets |
|---|---|
| Personnel | 400,000+ active-duty troops (largest standing army in NATO-Europe) |
| Experience | “Battle-hardened” (counter-insurgency in Iraq/Syria, Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh) |
| Armored Vehicles | Thousands of M60, Leopard 2, and Altay tanks; tens of thousands of APCs |
| Drone Production | World-leading Bayraktar TB2, Akıncı, Kargu, and other combat-proven UAVs |
| Naval Power | Large surface fleet and expanding submarine fleet; controls key straits |
| Industrial Capacity | Self-sufficient in ammunition and drone engines; expanded artillery production |
Ash highlighted that “Türkiye has been investing in its defense industry for 20 years while Europe was de-industrializing and slashing military budgets” .
⚠️ The Threat Environment: Why Europe Needs Türkiye Now
Ash dismissed the notion that Europe can afford to keep Ankara at arm’s length given the current threat landscape:
- Russia has transitioned to a war economy, vastly outproducing European ammunition and tank manufacturing.
- The United States is no longer a reliable guarantor of European security under the Trump administration’s “America First” policies.
- Ukraine is draining European arsenals faster than they can be replenished.
- Von der Leyen’s comment that Europe must resist “influence from Russia, Türkiye, or China” made no sense, Ash argued.
“Von Der Leyen’s comments make no sense. European politicians are still living in a fantasy land — not understanding the threats they face. When presented with solutions, they find excuses to ignore them.”
🔗 The Indivisible Economic Link
While von der Leyen’s rhetoric framed Türkiye as an external actor, Ash pointed to the deeply integrated economic reality: “Two-thirds of Türkiye’s foreign investment, financing and trade is with Europe” .
- Customs Union: Goods and services flow freely under the 1995 agreement (automotive, machinery, textiles).
- EU Accession Framework: While frozen, it remains the official policy, ensuring alignment with European standards.
- Energy Hub: Turkish pipelines and LNG terminals are critical for replacing Russian gas supplies.
Ash argued that cutting Türkiye off is an economic impossibility. He described the ties as “organic,” stating that Europe and Türkiye’s supply chains have merged, particularly in automotive, defense, and logistics sectors .
💥 The Franco-German Paradox
Ash articulated a core frustration among European defense analysts: Paris and Berlin — while publicly acknowledging Europe’s strategic vulnerability — refuse to integrate the one partner that could rapidly scale up their forces.
“Europe has money, designs, and tech. Türkiye has productive capacity and the political will to send matériel out the door.”
He recommended a burst of “pragmatic realpolitik” — expediting defense contracts with Turkish manufacturers (especially Baykar and Roketsan), fast-tracking the joint modernization of armored brigades in southeastern Europe, and using NATO’s eastern flank to integrate Turkish troops alongside Polish and Romanian forces .
📊 Key Takeaways
| Aspect | Summary |
|---|---|
| Ash’s Critique | Ignoring Türkiye’s military & industrial base would be “idiotic” |
| The Numbers | 400,000 soldiers, thousands of tanks/APCs, proven modern drones |
| The Economic Reality | 2/3 of Türkiye’s trade and investment is with Europe |
| The Threat | Russia is outproducing Europe; US commitments are uncertain; arsenals are depleted |
| The Failed Solution | Von der Leyen risks alienating the only partner that can quickly scale European defense |
| The Way Forward | Immediate integration of Turkish industrial capacity into NATO logistics; shared command structures |
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