Trump Praises UAE’s OPEC Exit as Key to Lowering Energy Prices

Reflecto News | Global Energy & Geopolitics

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump has endorsed the United Arab Emirates’ decision to withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the broader OPEC+ alliance, predicting that the move will ultimately reduce gasoline and oil prices for American consumers .

“I think it’s great,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Wednesday when asked about the UAE’s pullout. “I think ultimately it’s a good thing for getting the price of gas down, getting oil down, getting everything down” .

“They’re having some problems in OPEC,” the President added .

📉 The Logic Behind the Prediction

Trump’s optimism stems from a simple economic principle: the UAE—OPEC’s third‑largest producer behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq—will be free to increase its crude output once the war with Iran ends and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened .

Key factors cited by analysts:

• Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE have been forced to curb production during Israel’s war with Iran because the Strait of Hormuz has become too dangerous to navigate .
• The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) aims to boost capacity to 5 million barrels per day by 2027 . Without OPEC+ quotas, it can now ramp up production much faster.
• In the longer term, extra supply could help rebuild depleted global oil inventories that have been drained during the conflict .

⚠️ The Immediate Hurdle: The Strait of Hormuz

Despite the long‑term bullishness, the immediate impact on prices is muted. The war with Iran—triggered by joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28—has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil normally passes .

As long as the strait remains blocked, the UAE cannot export additional barrels regardless of its OPEC membership status. The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP), which bypasses the strait, has a capacity of only about 1.8 million barrels a day and is already running at or near full utilization .

Oil markets showed this reality on Wednesday: Brent crude briefly touched $119 a barrel before dipping only slightly, ending the day at around $111 . U.S. gasoline prices rose to a national average of $4.23 a gallon—a new wartime high .

🥊 A ‘Strategic Blow’ to OPEC – and a Win for Trump

Beyond the price implications, analysts view the UAE’s exit as a major geopolitical victory for the White House.

• Trump has long accused OPEC of “ripping off the rest of the world” and exploiting U.S. military protection in the Gulf while keeping oil prices high .
• The withdrawal deals a heavy blow to OPEC’s cohesion and its de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, which will now bear a larger share of the burden of managing global supply .

“The UAE exit from OPEC represents a big win for US President Donald Trump,” Reuters and other outlets noted .

The move also reflects Abu Dhabi’s frustration with fellow Gulf states over their response to Iranian attacks during the war. Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, criticized the Gulf Cooperation Council’s response as “the weakest historically” .

🔭 What Comes Next

For now, the conflict remains deadlocked. Iran continues to block the strait, the U.S. maintains its counter‑blockade of Iranian ports, and peace talks have stalled. The President’s long‑term prediction that the UAE’s exit will bring down prices depends entirely on a diplomatic breakthrough that allows the resumption of normal shipping through the Gulf .

Still, Trump hailed the decision as evidence of his administration’s success in reshaping global energy markets. “They’re having some problems in OPEC,” he said .

Key facts at a glance

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