“THE UNBREAKABLE REGIME?”: Israeli Intelligence Skeptical of Near-Term Collapse
JERUSALEM / LONDON — A new assessment from Israeli military intelligence, reported by the Financial Times (FT) on Wednesday, March 25, 2026, reveals a growing skepticism among top officials that the current month-long war will trigger a regime change in Tehran anytime soon. Despite the unprecedented intensity of Operation “Roaring Lion” (and the U.S. equivalent “Epic Fury”), intelligence analysts warn that the Islamic Republic’s core power structures remain remarkably resilient.
The report marks a significant shift in tone from the early days of the conflict, which saw the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of top officials on February 28.
The “Resilience Factor”
While the air campaign has been a “tactical triumph,” dismantling years of military investment in days, the political objective of internal collapse remains elusive.
- No Mass Defections: Contrary to early Western hopes, there have been no high-level defections from the IRGC or the regular military (Artesh). Command and control, while degraded, has not fractured.
- Consolidation of Power: The rapid appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader and the hardline shift in the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) suggest the regime’s “inner circle” has closed ranks rather than splintering.
- Civilian Control: While the IRGC reportedly failed to mobilize a full reserve force on March 12, they have successfully maintained order in major cities through a mix of digital blackouts and street-level patrols by the Basij.
Strategic Pivot: Infrastructure over Instability
In light of this intelligence, Israel has reportedly adjusted its operational priorities for the remainder of the campaign.
- Functional Collapse vs. Regime Fall: The IDF is now focusing on the functional collapse of Iran’s military—denying it the ability to project power—rather than waiting for a popular uprising or a palace coup.
- The “Surgical” Strike Shift: Recent waves of strikes, including the March 26 attacks in Tehran and Mashhad, have focused strictly on missile production lines, centrifuge casting sites, and drone assembly zones.
- Targeting the “Kill Chain”: By destroying 70% of Iran’s missile launchers and 90% of its drone capacity, Israel aims to make the regime “irrelevant” on the regional stage, even if it continues to hold onto domestic power.
The “April 6” Deadline and Ground Realities
The skepticism regarding regime change is a major factor in the current 10-day pause announced by President Trump.
| Metric | Intelligence Assessment (FT) |
|---|---|
| Internal Collapse | Low Probability in the next 30–60 days. |
| Military Utility | High Success; 15,000+ targets hit; production halted. |
| Public Dissent | Managed; massive protests in January were suppressed before the war started. |
| Regime Strategy | Horizontal Escalation; widening the war to make it too costly for the U.S. to stay. |
What’s Next?
As the “Islamabad Channel” indirect talks continue, the Israeli cabinet is reportedly divided. Hardliners like Bezalel Smotrich argue that only a “total infrastructure hit” (including the power grid) can break the regime, while intelligence professionals warn that such a move might only deepen civilian reliance on the state. For now, the focus remains on ensuring that when the smoke clears on April 6, Iran is a nation without an arsenal, regardless of who is in charge.