JUST IN: European Airports Face ‘Systemic’ Jet Fuel Shortages Within 3 Weeks If Hormuz Stays Closed, FT Reports
Published on Reflecto News | World News | Energy & Aviation
A stark warning has been issued to European capitals as the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz threatens to cripple the continent’s aviation sector. The Airports Council International Europe (ACI Europe) has cautioned that European airports face “systemic” shortages of jet fuel if the strategic waterway is not fully reopened within the next three weeks .
The warning, detailed in a letter from the industry group and reported by the Financial Times on Friday, highlights the precarious state of jet fuel supplies across the continent as the peak summer travel season approaches. The development marks a dramatic escalation from localized disruptions, suggesting a continent-wide crisis is imminent .
A ‘Systemic’ Warning from Airports Council
The ACI Europe letter represents the most significant industry warning yet regarding the impact of the Hormuz closure. While recent weeks have seen sporadic reports of restrictions at individual airports—such as temporary limits on refueling at some Italian hubs—the new assessment warns of a coordinated, structural collapse in supply chains .
Industry sources cited by Corriere della Sera indicate that the risk of a kerosene shortage “has gone from virtual to real in a matter of days” . The situation is reportedly more critical than previously acknowledged, with the final seaborne shipments from the Persian Gulf expected to be exhausted between the second and third week of May .
The Numbers Behind the Crisis
The disruption has already inflicted severe damage on global jet fuel markets. Prices have surged approximately 95%—nearly doubling—since the US and Israel launched military strikes against Iran on February 28 .
Key Supply Metrics:
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| Jet fuel price increase | ~95% (since Feb 28) |
| Europe’s reliance on Gulf imports | ~30-50% of total |
| Global oil transit via Hormuz | ~20% |
| EU/UK seaborne imports via Hormuz | 42% |
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that jet fuel—one of the most impacted refined products—will face worsening shortages in April and May .
Europe is particularly vulnerable because its just-in-time fuel delivery system cannot stockpile large quantities at airports. “Jet fuel can’t be stored in large quantities at airports, as the system relies on continuous deliveries through refineries and pipelines,” Anita Mendiratta, special adviser to the UN Secretary General of Tourism, told Euronews. “That means even short disruptions can create operational challenges quite quickly, particularly at large hub airports” .
Final Shipments Arriving, Then ‘Significant Drop’
According to Argus Media, a global energy and commodity market intelligence firm, the final jet fuel cargoes that passed through the Strait of Hormuz before its effective closure are projected to arrive at European ports around April 10 .
“After that, unless the energy chokepoint reopens or adequate alternative routes are secured, incoming volumes may drop significantly,” the firm warned .
George Shaw, senior insight analyst at trade intelligence firm Kpler, confirmed the severity of the disruption. “The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has taken out over 20% of the typical global seaborne jet fuel supply,” Shaw told Euronews. He noted that May could prove “even more challenging” than April .
Reserves: A Fragile Lifeline
While the EU has strategic reserves, their composition is decided by member states and varies significantly across the bloc. Estimates of available commercial jet fuel stocks suggest a wide disparity in national resilience :
Estimated Jet Fuel Coverage by Country:
| Country | Estimated Coverage (Months) |
|---|---|
| France / Ireland | Up to 8 |
| Germany / Italy | Up to 7 |
| Denmark | Up to 6 |
| Hungary | Up to 5 |
| Portugal | Up to 4 |
| United Kingdom | Up to 3 |
*Source: Argus Media estimates based on Eurostat data *
However, officials caution that these figures are not official government projections and do not fully account for demand shifts, logistical bottlenecks, or airport-specific exposures . The EU’s emergency stocks are typically a mix of gasoline, kerosene, and jet fuel, meaning not all reserves can be converted to aviation use .
The European Commission has acknowledged the gaps in data. “We are at the point of having a full picture of where the member states are at the moment,” Anna-Kaisa Itkonen, Commission spokesperson, told reporters. “At the next oil coordination group, this will be discussed” .
Airlines in Crisis Mode
The impact on airlines has been immediate and severe. Scandinavian carrier SAS announced it will cancel at least 1,000 flights in April, directly citing fuel cost pressures .
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby warned that airfares will need to rise 20% to cover the increased fuel costs . Other carriers are considering fuel surcharges, capacity reductions, or the elimination of unprofitable routes .
Industry analysts warn that airlines without robust hedging strategies are at the greatest risk. “Any airlines that have not hedged their fuel costs are also at risk, and we have seen that SAS was very quick to reduce the number of flights in response to high prices in March,” Shaw noted .
The US as an Alternative Supplier
As European buyers scramble for alternatives, the United States has emerged as a critical supplier. US monthly jet fuel exports to Europe reached their highest level in March, approaching 400,000 tonnes .
President Trump signaled this shift on March 31, urging countries facing shortages to purchase jet fuel from the US . However, analysts caution that US exports remain far below pre-crisis levels—representing just a fraction of the 1.4 million tonnes imported into the EU and UK in May 2025 .
“Fuel imports are pivoting towards the US, which is functioning as an alternative source,” Shaw noted, adding that European refineries will also increase jet fuel production to address the shortage .
The Ceasefire and Market Realities
While President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran on April 8, leading to a more than 10% drop in oil prices, analysts warn that the impact on jet fuel costs will remain limited in the near term .
“Globally, any jet fuel supply buffer that existed before the crisis has been severely dented, and the path back to pre-crisis levels will take months, not weeks,” James Noel-Beswick, head of Commodities at Sparta, told Anadolu Ajansı .
Damaged refinery and port infrastructure in the region will take time to restore, and security concerns continue to deter tanker loadings from the Persian Gulf despite the diplomatic pause .
Looking Ahead: A Race Against Time
The ACI Europe warning sets a clear deadline: three weeks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face systemic shortages. With final shipments arriving now and reserves varying dramatically by country, the window for diplomatic or logistical solutions is rapidly closing.
The European Commission has called for member states to coordinate their response, but has emphasized that jet fuel supply is largely managed through private contracts between airlines and suppliers . The EU has urged governments to avoid measures that would limit trade of petroleum products or discourage refinery output, and to defer non-emergency refinery maintenance .
As the summer travel season approaches—typically the peak period for aviation demand—the stakes could not be higher. For European travelers, the coming weeks may bring not only higher fares and fuel surcharges, but also the real possibility of grounded flights and disrupted travel plans.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. What did the Airports Council International Europe warn?
ACI Europe warned that European airports face “systemic” shortages of jet fuel if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened within three weeks. The warning was detailed in a letter to industry officials and reported by the Financial Times .
2. How much have jet fuel prices increased since the war began?
Jet fuel prices have surged approximately 95%—nearly doubling—since the US and Israel launched military strikes against Iran on February 28, 2026 .
3. When will the last shipments from the Gulf arrive?
The final jet fuel cargoes that passed through the Strait of Hormuz before its closure are projected to arrive at European ports around April 10, 2026 .
4. How long can European reserves last?
Estimates vary significantly by country. Commercial jet fuel stocks could cover up to 8 months in France and Ireland, but only about 3 months in the United Kingdom. These figures are estimates and do not account for demand shifts or logistical bottlenecks .
5. Which airlines have been affected?
Scandinavian carrier SAS announced it will cancel at least 1,000 flights in April. United Airlines CEO warned that airfares will need to rise 20% to cover increased fuel costs .
6. Can the US replace Middle Eastern supplies?
Partially. US jet fuel exports to Europe reached nearly 400,000 tonnes in March—the highest level since 2017—but this remains far below pre-crisis import levels of 1.4 million tonnes .
7. What is the EU doing to address the crisis?
The European Commission has urged member states to coordinate their response, avoid limiting petroleum product trade, defer non-emergency refinery maintenance, and prepare for “prolonged disruption” to energy markets .
8. Does the US-Iran ceasefire resolve the issue?
Not immediately. While the ceasefire caused oil prices to drop over 10%, analysts warn that damaged infrastructure, security concerns, and logistical bottlenecks mean supply restoration will take months, not weeks .
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