Iran’s Oil Exports Collapse Over 80% After US Naval Blockade
Reflecto News | Breaking News | Iran-US Conflict
TEHRAN/WASHINGTON — Iran’s oil exports have collapsed by more than 80% following the imposition of a US naval blockade, with only a trickle of crude managing to leave Iranian waters since mid-April, shipping data reveals .
Between April 13 and April 25, only a handful of tankers carrying Iranian crude departed the Gulf of Oman — a decline of over 80% from the comparable period in March, when Iran exported 23.4 million barrels of oil . Analysts at Kpler said they have not observed any Iranian crude tankers exiting the Gulf of Oman since the blockade began .
📊 Exports Plummet by 70%
Iranian crude loadings have plunged roughly 70% since the US blockade took effect on April 13, according to Kpler data. Exports averaged about 1.85 million barrels per day in March but fell to approximately 567,000 bpd in the following weeks .
- Before blockade (March): ~1.85 million barrels/day
- After blockade (late April) : ~567,000 barrels/day
- Reduction: ~70% decline
US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated that 41 tankers carrying 69 million barrels of oil that “the Iranian regime can’t sell” are now effectively blocked .
🛢️ Storage Crisis: Only 12-22 Days of Capacity Left
With exports choked off, Iran is rapidly running out of places to store its crude oil. According to Kpler analysts, Iran has just 12 to 22 days of unused storage capacity remaining .
- Onshore storage is about 60% full, with stocks above 50 million barrels out of a total capacity of 86 million barrels
- Satellite data shows storage tanks at Kharg Island — through which Iran exports 90% of its oil — were about 74% full as of April 20, having taken on about 3 million additional barrels since the blockade began
- Floating storage: Iran has resorted to using oil tankers as floating storage, even reactivating old vessels
🏭 Production Cuts Already Underway
The storage crunch is forcing Iran to curb production. Goldman Sachs estimates Iran has already cut as much as 2.5 million barrels per day of crude production .
Kpler analysts warned that if the blockade continues, Iran could be forced to cut an additional 1.5 million barrels per day by mid-May . Production could drop to around 1.2 to 1.3 million barrels per day — more than half below normal levels .
💰 Financial Impact Delayed but Severe
Despite the export collapse, Iran may not feel the full revenue hit for another three to four months . Iranian crude shipments to China typically take about two months to arrive, and buyers then have another two months to settle payments .
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that Iran’s oil industry is “creaking” under the blockade and that the country’s ability to maintain oil production “will soon collapse” . He estimated that Iran could face daily revenue losses of up to $170 million .
🌍 Regional Impact
The loss of Iranian supply adds to wider market tightness as the war has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, curtailing oil exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq . Benchmark Brent crude has jumped by about $50 a barrel since the war began on February 28 .
Iran’s currency, the rial, fell to a record low against the US dollar, highlighting the financial difficulties facing the oil-reliant economy .
📋 Key Takeaways
| Aspect | Summary |
|---|---|
| Export collapse | ~70-80% drop (from 1.85M bpd to ~567K bpd) |
| Storage capacity left | 12-22 days |
| Production cuts to date | ~2.5M bpd |
| Potential additional cuts | ~1.5M bpd by mid-May |
| Blockaded oil | 41 tankers / 69 million barrels |
| Revenue impact delay | 3-4 months |
| Oil price impact | Brent up ~$50/barrel since war began |
| Rial status | Record low against US dollar |
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