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TEL AVIV / WASHINGTON — Despite what it calls “very significant achievements” in the “Second Iran War,” the Israeli military cautioned on Tuesday, March 24, 2026, that it remains only “halfway there” in meeting its core war objectives. Senior defense officials, speaking to NPR, indicated that the IDF needs “several more weeks” of sustained operations to ensure a permanent degradation of the Iranian regime’s capabilities.
The assessment comes at a delicate moment, as President Donald Trump publicly declares the war “won” and pushes for a diplomatic resolution as early as this Thursday.
The Military Audit: Achievements vs. Gaps
Israeli officials acknowledged that the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign, Operation Roaring Lion, has fundamentally altered the regional balance of power since it began on February 28. However, they stressed that a “full strategic victory” has not yet been secured.
Key Achievements Cited:
- Command Breakdown: The campaign has successfully degraded Iran’s chain of command, illustrated by today’s strike on the IRGC Central Security HQ and the assassination of senior Quds Force operative Muhammad Ali Kourani.
- Missile Degradation: While the IDF has destroyed the majority of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers, officials warn that Tehran remains a “dangerous player” capable of evading defenses—evidenced by the missile that struck a Tel Aviv neighborhood today.
- Nuclear Delay: Strikes have significantly delayed Iran’s nuclear progress, though some “military industries and capabilities” remain intact and require further targeting.
The Remaining Gaps:
- Unfinished Targets: One senior official in the operations directorate told NPR that there are still “thousands of targets ahead” that must be neutralized to prevent a rapid Iranian rearmament.
- The “Passover” Timeline: Military spokespeople previously suggested that operational plans extend through at least the Passover holiday in mid-April, with deeper contingencies for three weeks beyond that.
A Rift in Narrative: Victory vs. Persistence
The Israeli insistence on “several more weeks” highlights a growing strategic rift between Jerusalem and the White House:
| Stakeholder | Stance (March 24-25, 2026) |
| President Trump | Declared today the “war has been won”; pushing for an Islamabad summit on Thursday. |
| PM Netanyahu | Acknowledges the “tremendous achievements” but vows to safeguard “vital interests” before stopping. |
| IDF Leadership | Views the current status as “halfway there”; warns against a premature ceasefire. |
| Regional Context | Lebanon has expelled the Iranian Ambassador and is facing an Israeli plan to occupy up to the Litani River. |
The “Gaza Model” in Lebanon
Compounding the timeline issue is Israel’s expanding front in Lebanon. Defense Minister Israel Katz has increasingly threatened to apply the “Gaza model” to southern Lebanon, moving to establish a “security zone” up to the Litani River. This secondary objective—aimed at neutralizing the remaining 11,000–13,000 Hezbollah missiles—is viewed by many in the Israeli cabinet as a prerequisite for any final peace deal.
What’s Next?
The “inner circle” of Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff is reportedly finalizing plans for a high-level summit in Islamabad this Thursday to codify Trump’s “15-point” peace plan. However, if the Israeli military continues to identify “active, dangerous” targets inside Iran, the world may see a period of “asymmetric de-escalation,” where Washington pursues diplomacy while Jerusalem continues to strike for a “full strategic victory.”
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