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TEL AVIV / WASHINGTON — Senior Israeli defense officials told NPR on Tuesday, March 24, 2026, that the IDF needs “several more weeks” of sustained operations to achieve a “full strategic victory” in the “Second Iran War,” assessing current progress as only “halfway there” despite “very significant achievements.” The officials said the extended campaign is required to ensure a permanent degradation of Iranian capabilities.
The assessment comes at a delicate moment, as President Donald Trump publicly declares the war “won” and pushes for a diplomatic resolution as early as this Thursday.
The Military Audit: Achievements vs. Gaps
Israeli officials acknowledged that the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign, Operation Roaring Lion, has fundamentally altered the regional balance of power since it began on February 28. However, they stressed that a “full strategic victory” has not yet been secured.
Key Achievements Cited:
- Command Breakdown: The campaign has successfully degraded Iran’s chain of command, illustrated by today’s strike on the IRGC Central Security HQ and the assassination of senior Quds Force operative Muhammad Ali Kourani.
- Missile Degradation: While the IDF has destroyed or disabled approximately 330 of Iran’s 470 ballistic missile launchers, officials warn that Tehran remains an “active, dangerous player” capable of evading defenses—evidenced by the missile that hit a Tel Aviv neighborhood yesterday.
- Nuclear Delay: Strikes have significantly delayed Iran’s nuclear plans, though some “military industries and capabilities” remain intact and require further targeting.
The Remaining Gaps:
- Unfinished Targets: One senior official in the operations directorate told NPR that there are still “thousands of targets ahead” that must be neutralized to prevent a rapid Iranian rearmament.
- The “Passover” Timeline: Military spokespeople previously suggested that operational plans extend through at least the Passover holiday (mid-April), with deeper contingencies for three weeks beyond that.
A Rift in Narrative: Victory vs. Persistence
The Israeli insistence on “several more weeks” highlights a growing strategic rift between Jerusalem and the White House:
| Stakeholder | Stance (March 24-25, 2026) |
| President Trump | Declared the “war has been won”; pushing for an Islamabad summit on Thursday. |
| PM Netanyahu | Acknowledges the “tremendous achievements” but vows to safeguard “vital interests” before stopping. |
| IDF Leadership | Views the current status as “halfway there”; warns against a premature ceasefire. |
| Regional Context | Lebanon has expelled the Iranian Ambassador and is facing an Israeli plan to occupy up to the Litani River. |
The “Gaza Model” in Lebanon
Compounding the timeline issue is Israel’s expanding front in Lebanon. The IDF seeks to seize the “entire area” south of the Litani River to dismantle Hezbollah infrastructure—a goal that officials have told Israeli media could continue for months even if the direct conflict with Iran ends soon. This secondary objective is viewed by many in the Israeli cabinet as a prerequisite for any final peace deal.
What’s Next?
The “inner circle” of Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff is reportedly finalizing plans for a high-level summit in Islamabad this Thursday to codify Trump’s “15-point” peace plan. However, if the Israeli military continues to identify “active, dangerous” targets inside Iran, the world may see a period of “asymmetric de-escalation,” where Washington pursues diplomacy while Jerusalem continues to strike for a “full strategic victory.”
