“HALFWAY THERE”: Israel Reports Major Strategic Gains but No “Full Victory” Over Iran
TEL AVIV — In a comprehensive military assessment released on Wednesday, March 25, 2026, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) claimed “unprecedented” tactical and strategic success in the month-long conflict with Iran. However, senior officials cautioned that the objective of a “full strategic victory” remains unfulfilled, suggesting that several more weeks of operations may be required.
The report comes as President Donald Trump publicly declared the “war has been won,” highlighting a growing narrative gap between Washington’s push for a diplomatic exit and Jerusalem’s desire to complete its military objectives.
A “Calculated” Audit of the War
According to the IDF, the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign, Operation Roaring Lion, has fundamentally dismantled the “Ring of Fire” that Iran spent decades building around Israel.
The Strategic “Win” Column:
- Command Decapitation: The IDF confirmed the assassination of senior Quds Force operative Muhammad Ali Kourani in Beirut yesterday and a successful strike on the IRGC Intelligence HQ in Tehran.
- Hezbollah’s Depletion: Israeli intelligence now estimates Hezbollah’s missile arsenal has dropped to one-sixth of its pre-war levels (down to roughly 13,000 from 75,000).
- Nuclear Setback: While a strike hit the perimeter of the Bushehr Nuclear Plant yesterday without causing radiological damage, Israel claims it has significantly “reset the clock” on Iran’s weaponization capabilities.
- Regional Isolation: For the first time, Lebanon has officially broken with Tehran, shooting down an Iranian ballistic missile and expelling the Iranian Ambassador.
The Remaining Challenges:
Despite these gains, the IDF admitted to NPR that the mission is only “halfway there.”
- Persistent Threats: Iran remains capable of launching “nuisance” and “saturation” strikes, as evidenced by a missile hitting a Tel Aviv neighborhood yesterday.
- Infrastructure Resilience: Significant portions of the IRGC’s “underground cities” and mobile launcher networks remain intact.
The “Passover” Timeline vs. The “Islamabad” Summit
The Israeli military’s insistence on “several more weeks” of combat directly complicates the “inner circle” diplomacy being led by Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff.
| Stakeholder | Current Position |
| IDF Leadership | Seeks to continue strikes through Passover (mid-April) to ensure no rapid rearmament. |
| President Trump | Declared the war won; wants a deal signed in Islamabad by Thursday. |
| PM Netanyahu | Balancing the “tremendous achievements” against the risk of a “premature” U.S.-brokered deal. |
| The IRGC | Issued a defiant “Come closer” message today, claiming 20 years of preparation for a ground war. |
The “Litani Line” Objective
A major factor in Israel’s “incomplete” status is the Lebanon front. Israel has formally announced its intent to occupy southern Lebanon up to the Litani River to create a permanent buffer zone. Military analysts believe that until this “security zone” is fully established and Hezbollah’s remaining 13,000 missiles are neutralized, the Israeli cabinet will be reluctant to agree to a comprehensive ceasefire.
What’s Next?
All eyes are on the Thursday, March 26 window for high-level talks in Islamabad. If the Trump administration successfully secures an Iranian signature on its “15-point plan”—which includes a total nuclear freeze and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—Israel will face immense pressure to halt its operations. However, if the talks fail, the U.S. “tactical pause” on energy infrastructure will expire on Friday, likely giving the IDF the green light to pursue the “full victory” it currently lacks.