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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The delicate balancing act maintained by the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf appears to be collapsing. According to a high-profile report from The Wall Street Journal, both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have taken concrete, if quiet, steps toward joining the ongoing war against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
The shift marks a major turning point in the month-long conflict. Since the start of “Operation Epic Fury” on February 28, the Gulf states have publicly distanced themselves from U.S. and Israeli strikes, fearing massive Iranian retaliation. However, after weeks of relentless drone and missile attacks on their own energy hubs, airports, and desalination plants, the calculation in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi has fundamentally changed.
Saudi Arabia Opens the Gates
In what sources describe as an “apparent reversal” of standing policy, Saudi Arabia has reportedly agreed to grant the U.S. military access to King Fahd Air Base on the western side of the Arabian Peninsula for offensive operations.
Previously, Riyadh had insisted its facilities and airspace were off-limits for strikes against its longtime rival. But as Iranian missiles continue to target the Saudi capital and the critical Ras Tanura refinery, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is said to be weighing a direct entry into the air campaign. One source told the WSJ it is now “a matter of when, not whether” the Kingdom joins the fight to re-establish deterrence.
The UAE Targets Tehran’s Lifelines
While Saudi Arabia moves on the military front, the UAE has begun a systematic crackdown on Iranian influence within its borders:
- Institutional Closures: Authorities in Dubai recently shut down the Iranian Hospital and the Iranian Club, two longstanding pillars of the Iranian community and, according to Gulf officials, “misused” conduits for IRGC influence.
- Financial Freeze: The UAE has warned it may freeze billions of dollars in Iranian holdings. As a primary global hub for Iranian trade, such a move could effectively paralyze what remains of Tehran’s access to foreign currency.
“Certain institutions directly linked to the Iranian regime will be closed under targeted measures,” the UAE government said in a statement, citing violations of national law.
The “Unity of Disdain”
The catalyst for this regional shift was the expansion of Iranian strikes to include previously untouched neighbors. Last week’s attack on Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas hub and the ongoing disruption of power in Kuwait have unified the GCC in a way few expected.
Gulf leaders are now reportedly lobbying the Trump administration to ensure that any ceasefire—including the current 5-day pause—does not leave Iran’s missile and drone manufacturing capabilities intact. “Ending the war with Iran still in possession of the tools it is currently using to target the GCC would be a strategic disaster,” one Gulf official noted.
Risk of Total War
The move toward active participation carries immense risks. If the Gulf states openly join the coalition, Iran has threatened to treat every city from Dubai to Kuwait City as a “frontline combat zone.” Furthermore, videos verified by Storyful suggest that ground-based missiles have already been launched from Bahrain, indicating the “regionalization” of the war is already well underway.
As the U.S. prepares to rotate thousands of Marines into the theater this Friday, the addition of Saudi and Emirati air power would create a formidable “triple threat” against Tehran—but it may also ensure the conflict remains a “black box” of escalation for months to come.
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