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NEW YORK / DUBAI — Former U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton has doubled down on his long-standing advocacy for the overthrow of the Iranian government, asserting on Wednesday, March 25, 2026, that Gulf Arab states remain quietly supportive of “regime change” despite the immense economic and security risks they currently face.
Speaking to The National and other outlets as the U.S.-Israel-Iran war enters its most critical phase, Bolton argued that while Gulf leaders may have been wary of the war’s sudden onset, they ultimately view the current clerical leadership as an “unfixable” threat.
The “Competitive Competitors” Argument
Bolton drew a historical parallel to the era of the Shah, suggesting that a change in Tehran would restore a more natural balance to the region.
- ** competitor vs. Enemy:** Bolton highlighted that during the Shah’s reign, Gulf Arabs and Iran were “competitors in international affairs,” but they were not “bitter enemies.”
- The “Equilibrium” Factor: “I think any regime in Iran that is not the current regime has to be more conducive to equilibrium in the Gulf,” Bolton said. He believes the Gulf states still favor a fundamental transformation of the Iranian state to ensure “truly enhanced peace and security.”
- Participation is Key: Bolton urged Gulf Arab states to move beyond passive support and join the conflict directly, stating that their active participation is “critical to whether we get a possibility of peace and stability.”
Critique of the “Trump Method”
Despite sharing the President’s apparent goal of regime change, Bolton remains a vocal critic of how Operation Epic Fury has been managed.
| Bolton’s Critique | Strategic Concern |
| Lack of Preparation | Trump failed to “prepare the American people,” Congress, NATO, or Gulf allies before launching strikes on February 28. |
| Transaction over Strategy | Bolton claims Trump “does not think strategically,” viewing the war as a series of “spur of the moment” transactions rather than a long-term plan. |
| The “Wounded Beast” Risk | He warned that if Trump “leaves the battle before the regime has changed,” a wounded Iran will simply rebuild its nuclear and terror networks once oil starts flowing again. |
Bolton’s “Benign” Outcome
Bolton dismissed the need for a massive U.S. ground invasion, instead proposing a strategy of “internal collapse” triggered by sustained military pressure.
- Destabilize the Top: Use strikes to eliminate leadership and set regime officials against one another.
- Encourage Defections: Force a situation where “any regime that can’t defend itself will fall.”
- Military Transition: Bolton envisions a “transitional military-led government” headed by generals of the regular army (Artesh), rather than the IRGC, to restore order before a new constitution is written.
The “Friday” Reality (March 26, 2026)
Bolton’s comments come at a moment of extreme tension. With the Friday morning deadline (sunrise, March 27) just hours away, the Trump administration is poised to transition to the “total infrastructure phase” of the war. Bolton’s fear is that Trump might accept a “weak deal” to calm energy markets, leaving the “ultimate threat”—the regime itself—intact.
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