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LONDON — In a sobering assessment of the “Second Iran War’s” economic toll, Shell CEO Wael Sawan warned on Wednesday, March 25, 2026, that Europe could face acute fuel shortages as early as next month. Speaking at an emergency energy forum, Sawan highlighted that the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and recent damage to regional refining hubs have created a “structural deficit” that the global market cannot easily bridge.
The warning comes as Brent crude continues to trade above $105 per barrel, with European storage levels dropping faster than seasonal norms.
The “April Crunch”: Why Shortages are Looming
According to Shell’s internal modeling, the combination of the Persian Gulf blockade and shifting global trade routes has placed a massive strain on European diesel and gasoline supplies.
Key Drivers of the Shortage:
- Hormuz Blockade: The “non-hostile” only policy enforced by Tehran has effectively cut off 20% of the world’s transit oil, much of which is destined for European refineries.
- Refining Disruptions: The strike on QatarEnergy’s Ras Laffan facility and force majeure declarations from other Gulf producers have halted the flow of specialized refined products.
- Inventory Depletion: European nations have been drawing heavily from their Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) to stabilize prices since the conflict began on February 28. Sawan noted that these buffers are not “bottomless.”
- The “Russian Gap”: The EU’s delay of a permanent Russian oil ban yesterday reflects the desperation to keep any available molecules flowing, yet logistical hurdles remain immense.
Rationing on the Horizon?
Sawan suggested that without a “breakthrough diplomatic resolution” by the end of this week, European governments may be forced to implement emergency demand-management measures.
“We are moving from a price crisis to a physical availability crisis. Unless the Strait of Hormuz is reopened unconditionally and immediately, we are looking at a very difficult April for European transport and industry.” — Wael Sawan, Shell CEO
Potential Emergency Measures:
- Industrial Curtailments: Heavy industries (chemicals, steel) may be asked to reduce energy consumption.
- Fuel Rationing: Several EU member states are reportedly dusting off “Stage 3” energy emergency plans, which include limits on gas station purchases.
- Speed Limit Reductions: To conserve fuel, some nations are considering temporary national speed limits on motorways.
The Race Against the Friday Deadline
The Shell CEO’s warning adds immense pressure to the “inner circle” diplomacy led by Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff.
| Strategic Event | Date | Impact on Energy |
| Islamabad Summit | Thursday, Mar 26 | Target for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. |
| UK-Led Coalition | Ongoing | A 30-nation mission to clear mines and escort tankers. |
| U.S. Ultimatum | Friday, Mar 27 | Deadline for Iran to accept the “15-point” peace plan. |
| Shortage Forecast | April 2026 | The window where Shell predicts “physical gaps” in supply. |
What’s Next?
As the Thursday, March 26 window for talks in Islamabad opens, the energy sector is watching for any sign that Iran will soften its demand for “formal control” over the Strait. If the talks fail and the U.S. moves into the “total infrastructure phase” of the war on Friday, the energy shock is expected to intensify, potentially pushing oil toward the $120–$140 range and making Sawan’s “April Crunch” a reality.
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