Chatham House’s Ash: EU Turned Türkiye Away After ‘Privileged Partnership’ Talk; Now Europe Needs Ankara for Its Own Defense

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LONDON — The European Union’s historic rejection of Türkiye’s accession—under the guise of a “privileged partnership”—came at the exact moment the country was hitting record economic benchmarks and embracing sweeping democratic reforms, Chatham House expert Timothy Ash has told Anadolu Ajansı .

According to Ash, the real turning point was not a failure of Turkish policy, but the European refusal to offer a “level playing field” as France and Germany openly downgraded Ankara’s candidacy—a move that sent shockwaves through investor confidence and derailed a generation of liberalization.

“The EU anchor drove [Türkiye’s reforms]. It went off track when France & Germany started talking about a ‘privileged partnership.’ Türkiye realized it wasn’t a level playing field.”
— Timothy Ash, Associate Fellow, Chatham House

📈 2000s: The ‘Golden Decade’ Under the EU Anchor

Ash drew a direct causal link between EU accession momentum and what he described as Türkiye’s strongest period of modern economic governance .

Key achievements of the ‘reform decade’ (roughly 2002-2012) according to Ash:

“The EU anchor drove that,” Ash said, explaining that Brussels’ conditionality—the promise of eventual membership—gave investors confidence that Türkiye’s reforms were locked in. The IMF program provided credibility, while EU accession benchmarks shaped everything from central bank independence to judicial oversight .

🚧 Derailment: ‘Privileged Partnership’ and the Double Standard

Ash pinpointed the moment the trajectory broke: France and Germany effectively closed the door on full membership.

In 2005-2007, French President Nicolas Sarkozy began openly declaring that Türkiye had “no place” in the EU, proposing a “privileged partnership” instead of membership . German Chancellor Angela Merkel likewise championed the same concept . This, Ash argued, was public confirmation that Türkiye would not be treated equally.

“It went off track when France & Germany started talking about a ‘privileged partnership.’ Türkiye realized it wasn’t a level playing field.”

The Double Standard: Ash highlighted that Bulgaria and Romania (which joined the EU in 2007) were let in despite having lower GDP per capita and more serious issues with corruption and rule of law . Meanwhile, Türkiye—which at the time had a growing economy, a larger population than any EU member, and a crucial NATO role—was offered a vague status that Ash described as a deliberate strategy of “keeping Turkey out institutionally while exploiting its NATO commitments” .

“For Turkish policymakers, this was a gut punch. They had restructured the economy, opened the courts, and spent two decades meeting conditions—only to be told they would never be truly European. That is the root of the bitterness.”

🛡️ The Paradox: Europe Now Needs Türkiye for Its Own Security

Ash concluded that the irony of the current moment is unmistakable.

With the United States disengaging from Europe under President Trump, European NATO allies face a severe shortage of conventional ground forces, ammunition stockpiles, and industrial capacity .

Despite this, Brussels continues to block deeper defense cooperation with Ankara, even refusing to add Turkish firms to the European Defence Fund’s list of eligible contractors .

Ash argued: “Bulgaria and Romania were let in to EU despite being poorer and having serious rule of law issues, while Türkiye brought more to the table. With US disengagement from Europe, I hope Europe finally reawakens to the opportunities of deeper engagement with Türkiye—for Europe’s defense and for Türkiye’s reform process itself. But first, Europe must battle its own prejudices” .

Ash warned that the current path is leading to mutual strategic drift, leaving a vacuum that Russia could exploit. He suggests that the upcoming European Defence Summit (scheduled for June 2026) presents a concrete opportunity for European leaders to end the discrimination in defense procurement and to revive the EU-Türkiye customs union .

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