Chatham House Expert: Von der Leyen’s Türkiye Remarks ‘Disappointing,’ Europe’s Future Lies with Ankara

Overview: A Sharp Rebuke

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s recent suggestion that the European Union must defend itself against “influence from Russia, Türkiye, or China” has drawn sharp criticism from leading analysts, who warn that Brussels is making a dangerous strategic miscalculation by distancing itself from Ankara .

During an event marking Die Zeit’s 80th anniversary in Hamburg, von der Leyen stated: “We must succeed in completing the European continent so that it is not influenced by Russia, Türkiye or China” . A spokesperson later clarified that Türkiye is “unquestionably an important partner” and that its mention reflected its “geopolitical weight rather than any direct comparison” . Experts, however, insist the damage has been done.

“Frankly I think this is an extraordinary statement,” Timothy Ash, Associate Fellow at Chatham House, told Anadolu Ajansı . “It is also very disappointing that a senior European politician would have such a complete misunderstanding of the strategic threats facing Europe and of Türkiye’s importance as an ally.”

🛡️ Why Türkiye is Irreplaceable for Europe’s Defense

Ash highlighted a brutal reality often ignored in Brussels: the United States is no longer a reliable security backstop for Europe.

“After four years of war in Ukraine, European politicians should be absolutely aware of the existential threat from Russia—and that America is no longer there for Europe’s defense,” Ash said .

With the U.S. security guarantee evaporating and Europe facing critical gaps in its own military-industrial capacity, Ash argues that the fastest way to build Europe’s defense is with Türkiye. He explained: “Türkiye boasts the largest military in Europe, outside of Ukraine and Russia, with nearly 400,000 troops and a rapidly growing military-industrial complex” .

“Türkiye can help France, the UK, and other countries maintain a credible peacekeeping force in Ukraine by contributing tens of thousands of ground troops,” he added .

Ash also dismissed European arguments about rule-of-law concerns as insufficient grounds for blocking Türkiye’s integration. “It’s not about ideology or values right now,” he added. “It’s about finding partners to rebuild NATO’s eastern flank. Türkiye is the only country that has maintained good relations with both Ukraine and Russia throughout this war” .

🏭 The Industrial Powerhouse Europe Needs

Ash believes Türkiye holds the key to solving Europe’s industrial crisis in defense manufacturing.

While Europe possesses advanced military technologies, its manufacturing capacity is too slow to respond to the current threat environment. “Türkiye’s ability to scale up production could help Europe address immediate supply gaps in defense manufacturing,” he said .

“The natural partner for Europe is Türkiye,” Ash argued .

The expert referenced the recent collaboration between Turkish drone producer Baykar and Italy’s Leonardo as a promising template for future cooperation. More such partnerships are likely, driven by mutual interests in countering regional threats and diversifying supply chains .

“Türkiye can help us help Ukraine—right now—by scaling up production of ammunition, drones, and armored vehicles,” Ash told Anadolu. “Europe has the money, the designs, and the tech. Türkiye has the productive capacity and the political will to send matériel out the door” .

🇹🇷 Ankara’s ‘Grown‑Up’ Response

Ash contrasted von der Leyen’s provocative rhetoric with what he described as Türkiye’s “grown‑up” response to the crisis.

“Instead of responding in kind, Ankara stuck to the facts: Türkiye remains a loyal ally, a candidate for EU membership (since 1999), and is deeply integrated into European economic and defense structures,” Ash stated .

Despite the political blow, Ash believes Ankara understands that Europe has been “double-faced” on Turkish accession for decades. While EU accession talks are effectively frozen, Ash argues that the war in Ukraine has prompted a “new realism” in European capitals regarding their security dependencies .

“The quickest route to European strategic autonomy runs directly through Ankara—not past it” .

🔮 Conclusion: A Shared Future

In his concluding remarks for Anadolu, Ash noted that “Europeans pushed back on EU accession, and Türkiye understood Europe was double-faced. But in the end, Türkiye and Europe’s future is together” .

“The natural partner for Türkiye is Europe,” Ash reiterated, emphasizing the deep economic ties and shared interests that bind them—from automotive supply chains to energy diversification via the Trans-Caspian Corridor .

📊 Key Takeaways

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