ARSENAL DEPLETED: Hezbollah Missile Stockpile Down to One-Sixth of Pre-War Levels
TEL AVIV — A new assessment by the Israeli military, reported by The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday, March 25, 2026, indicates that Hezbollah’s once-massive missile and rocket arsenal has been decimated by months of sustained Israeli strikes.
Officials estimate the Lebanese group now possesses between 11,000 and 13,000 missiles—a staggering drop from the approximately 75,000 it held prior to the escalation on October 7, 2023.
A Systematic Degradation
The current stockpile represents roughly one-sixth of Hezbollah’s previous capacity. The degradation is the result of Israel’s “Operation Northern Arrows” and the ongoing “Second Iran War,” which have prioritized the destruction of long-range precision missiles and launch infrastructure.
Key Findings of the Assessment:
- Loss of Precision: The bulk of Hezbollah’s remaining arsenal consists of short-range, unguided Katyusha-style rockets. Most of its high-end, Iranian-made precision-guided munitions (PGMs) were destroyed in deep-penetration strikes in the Beqaa Valley and Beirut.
- Launch Failure Rates: Israeli intelligence notes that recent Hezbollah barrages have suffered from a high failure rate, with an estimated 60% of rockets either misfiring or falling within Lebanese territory.
- Supply Line Severance: The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria in late 2024 and the subsequent Israeli “buffer zone” in southern Lebanon have significantly throttled the group’s ability to smuggle in replacement parts from Iran.
The “Trump Card” Shift: From Missiles to Drones
With its missile inventory dwindling, Hezbollah has pivoted its strategy toward Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). According to data from the Alma Research Center, UAVs now account for nearly 25% of Hezbollah’s attacks in March 2026, compared to just 7.5% in late 2024.
“Hezbollah is no longer the ‘rocket army’ it was two years ago. They are now relying on low-cost, domestically assembled drones to maintain a psychological and operational impact while they struggle to preserve their remaining rockets.” — Israeli Military Analyst
Strategic Context: The Litani Deadline
The report on Hezbollah’s weakened state coincides with a period of extreme pressure on the group:
- The “Litani Line”: Israel announced yesterday its intent to occupy southern Lebanon up to the Litani River to prevent any remaining short-range rockets from reaching northern Israeli towns.
- Lebanon’s Rupture: The Lebanese government shot down an Iranian ballistic missile yesterday and expelled the Iranian Ambassador, further isolating Hezbollah from its primary patron.
- The “Inner Circle” Diplomacy: In Washington, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are reportedly leading a secret outreach to Iran to wind down the war, a move that could leave Hezbollah without its primary security guarantee.
What’s Next?
Despite the reduced numbers, 11,000 missiles still represent a formidable threat capable of overwhelming air defenses if launched in concentrated “saturation” salvos. However, with the Friday deadline for a U.S.-Iran deal approaching, the IDF is expected to continue its “decapitation” campaign against Hezbollah’s remaining storage sites to ensure the group cannot rearm during any potential ceasefire.