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MOSCOW / LONDON — A new analysis by the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) Institute, reported by The Telegraph and Anadolu Agency on Thursday, March 26, 2026, reveals that Russia’s oil and gas revenues are expected to nearly double this month. Monthly income is projected to surge from approximately $12 billion to almost $24 billion, as the Kremlin capitalizes on the massive energy disruptions caused by the war in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
The findings suggest that the very conflict the United States and Israel are waging in the Gulf has become a critical “oil bonus” for President Vladimir Putin, potentially erasing Russia’s early-2026 budget deficit.
The Mechanics of the Windfall
The doubling of revenue is driven by a “perfect storm” of geopolitical factors that have effectively neutralized the impact of Western sanctions on Russian energy.
- The $760 Million Daily Payday: Russia is now earning an estimated $760 million per day from oil and gas exports. This spike is attributed to global Brent Crude prices stabilizing above $100 per barrel, with Russian Urals crude jumping from $45 in February to over $75–$90 in March.
- The “Hormuz Premium”: With 27% of global seaborne oil trapped behind the Iranian blockade, demand for Russian barrels—which bypass the Strait via the Bosphorus and domestic pipelines—has reached a four-year high.
- U.S. Sanctions Waivers: To prevent a total global economic collapse, the U.S. Treasury recently issued temporary waivers allowing India and other major buyers to purchase Russian oil cargoes already at sea, effectively allowing Moscow to trade at near-market prices.
A “Mature Decision”: Putin’s Debt Strategy
Despite the influx of cash, President Putin has signaled that Russia will not be entering a new era of “extravagant spending.”
| Strategy | Action | Objective |
| Debt Repayment | Putin urged companies to use windfalls to pay off domestic bank loans. | Strengthening the internal banking system against long-term sanctions. |
| Deficit Control | Surplus revenue will be used to hold the annual budget deficit to 1.6%. | Maintaining macroeconomic stability during the ongoing war in Ukraine. |
| National Wealth Fund | A portion of the $84 billion in projected annual windfall will be diverted to the NWF. | Rebuilding liquid assets that were halved since 2022. |
The “Contingency” Projections
The KSE Institute provided two scenarios for Russia’s energy future based on the duration of the Iran conflict:
- The “Optimistic” Scenario (Conflict ends in April): Russia’s annual oil and gas revenues would still reach $218.5 billion—a 63% increase over pre-war estimates.
- The “Prolonged” Scenario (Conflict lasts 6 months): Revenues could skyrocket to $386.5 billion, a staggering 188% increase that would grant the Kremlin nearly $200 billion in unexpected “war chest” funding.
What’s Next?
As the Friday sunrise deadline passes and the world enters the 10-day delay announced by President Trump, the “Russia Factor” remains a primary complication for Western strategy. The longer the threat to Iranian infrastructure persists, the more Russia solidifies its position as the world’s “indispensable” energy provider. If oil breaches $150 per barrel—as predicted by Putin envoy Kirill Dmitriev—the Kremlin’s monthly revenue could exceed $30 billion, fundamentally altering the financial landscape of both the Middle East and Ukraine conflicts.
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