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What voters decided
Millions of Americans voted on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, in midterm elections that decided control of the United States Congress. According to election trackers, about 51 million ballots had already been cast early before Election Day, based on data from 47 reporting states.
Voters were choosing all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate, and 36 state governorships. No president was on the ballot. Midterm elections take place halfway through a president’s four-year term, and they are widely watched as a measure of public opinion on the government in office.
Polls began closing at 6 p.m. Eastern Time in parts of Indiana and Kentucky, with most states following through the evening. The last polls closed at 1 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday in Alaska’s Aleutian Islands.
What was at stake
Before the election, Republicans held a narrow majority in both chambers of Congress. In the House, the balance stood at 218 seats for Republicans and 214 for Democrats, with two vacant seats and one independent member who caucuses with Republicans on committee assignments. In the Senate, Republicans held 53 seats against 47 for Democrats and independents who caucus with them.
In the House, 218 seats are needed for a majority. In the Senate, 51 seats are needed for a majority, although a 50-50 split would still leave the party of the vice president in control, because the vice president casts tie-breaking votes.
Democrats needed a net gain of four Senate seats to take control of that chamber, while in the House they needed only a small net gain to win a majority.
What forecasters projected
In the weeks before the vote, several independent forecasters moved a number of races in the Democrats’ direction. Sabato’s Crystal Ball, in its final ratings released on November 2, projected that Democrats were favoured to win 239 House seats, 53 Senate seats and 28 governorships, compared with 196, 47 and 22 for Republicans.
Prediction markets pointed in a similar direction. Before the polls opened, the Kalshi exchange put the Democrats’ chance of winning the House at about 94 percent and the Senate at about 75 percent. Other models were more cautious. One forecasting model based on past Senate results estimated the Democrats’ chance of a Senate majority at about 40 percent, with a median outcome of 50 Democratic seats.
Forecasters and analysts stressed that these were estimates, not results, and that close races could still go either way.
How the counting works
Results are not final on election night. News organisations such as the Associated Press only call a race when the available data makes the outcome clear. Until then, the correct description for most close contests is “too early to call.”
Counting also moves at different speeds in different states. Mail-in ballots, provisional ballots and overseas ballots can take days to count in some states, and early leads can change as more votes are counted. Official results are only confirmed when states certify them, which usually happens weeks after Election Day.
Close races can also go to a recount under state law.
What happens next
Once the results are known, attention will turn to what the new balance of power means for legislation. Analysts say the party that controls each chamber will shape which bills reach a vote, which investigations move forward, and how the administration’s agenda is treated in Congress.
The new Congress is expected to take office in January. Until the results are certified, however, the picture remains incomplete, and both parties have said they will wait for the official counts before drawing final conclusions.
Reflecto News will update this story as results are confirmed by election officials and called by major news organisations.
