Prof. Robert Pape: Iran Is Laying Groundwork for Nuclear Weapons — Working with Pakistan and Russia

Reflecto News | Iran-US Relations | Nuclear Proliferation

CHICAGO — Professor Robert Pape, a leading expert on international security at the University of Chicago, has warned that Iran is systematically laying the groundwork to develop nuclear weapons, working closely with established nuclear powers Pakistan and Russia while positioning itself as a major center of global power.

Pape’s analysis, based on his recent assessments of the ongoing Iran-US conflict, paints a picture of a Tehran that has learned from the 2015 nuclear deal’s collapse and is now building a diplomatic and technical “insurance policy” that would allow it to cross the nuclear weapons threshold rapidly if it chooses.

“Iran is likely laying the groundwork for nuclear weapons. They’re working with Pakistan and Russia — nuclear powers. They’re working with allies better than we are with ours. Iran is positioning itself as a major center of global power.”
— Prof. Robert Pape, University of Chicago

💣 The Technical Reality: 60% Enriched Uranium and ‘Breakout Time’

Pape’s warning comes as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has confirmed that Iran possesses stockpiles of uranium enriched to 60 percent—just one technical step away from weapons-grade material. According to IAEA reports, prior to the escalation in mid-2025, Tehran had over 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium, enough for multiple nuclear devices with a theoretical “breakout time” measured in days or weeks .

The current status of this stockpile remains unaccounted for following the US-Israeli strikes that began on February 28 . Fox News columnist Goli Ameri reported in early April that Iran possesses over 450kg of 60% enriched uranium—enough for nine to eleven nuclear weapons .

🤝 The Nuclear Allies: Pakistan and Russia

Pape’s identification of Pakistan and Russia as Iran’s nuclear partners is significant. Both are declared nuclear weapon states under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

Pakistan has long-standing ties to Iran, sharing a border and a complex relationship. While Islamabad has historically sought to avoid direct nuclear cooperation with Tehran due to pressure from Riyadh and Washington, intelligence assessments have long noted the potential for knowledge transfer between the two countries’ nuclear establishments. Pakistan’s strategic depth doctrine and its own history of nuclear proliferation (via the A.Q. Khan network) make it a concerning partner .

Russia has been more overt. During Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s April 26 visit to St. Petersburg, President Vladimir Putin hailed “how courageously and heroically the people of Iran are fighting for their independence and sovereignty,” and pledged that Moscow would “do everything that serves your interests” . Importantly, Russia has offered to take custody of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile — a proposal that, if accepted, would legitimize Iran’s enrichment program while technically moving the material off Iranian soil .

Russian experts have also suggested that Moscow could assist with the technical details of a new nuclear deal, leveraging Rosatom’s decades of cooperation with Iran’s civilian nuclear program at Bushehr . This gives Russia unique insight into Iran’s nuclear infrastructure that no other country possesses.

🌍 ‘Zero-Sum Conflict’: Why a Deal Is Unlikely

Pape’s analysis extends beyond nuclear cooperation to the fundamental structure of the conflict. In recent commentary, he described the Iran-US confrontation as “zero-sum”—meaning that one side’s gain is inevitably the other’s loss .

“It cannot be the case that Iran controls Hormuz and does not control Hormuz. It cannot be the case that Iran is enriching uranium and not enriching uranium.”
— Prof. Robert Pape

According to Pape, these structural incompatibilities mean that even temporary ceasefires are inherently unstable. “Zero-sum conflicts do not automatically escalate,” he writes, “they escalate when both sides reveal that losing is worse than fighting” . He warns that the current pattern of “incremental escalation, brief pauses, renewed escalation” is the natural rhythm of a conflict that cannot be resolved through diplomacy .

🎯 Positioning as a ‘Major Center of Global Power’

Pape’s claim that Iran is “positioning itself as a major center of global power” aligns with Tehran’s own public statements. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared after his meeting with Putin that “the entire world witnessed Iran’s true power in confronting the United States, and it became clear that the Islamic Republic of Iran is a stable, solid, and powerful system” .

Iran’s strategy appears to be multi-pronged:

1. Nuclear threshold capability — Maintaining the technical ability to produce a weapon without actually testing one, creating strategic ambiguity ;
2. Regional proxies — Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias provide Iran with forward operating bases and retaliatory capability;
3. Diplomatic hedging — Tehran is engaging with Pakistan (mediator), Oman (traditional intermediary), and Russia (strategic partner) to insulate itself from US pressure ;
4. Strait of Hormuz control — By effectively closing the strait to most commercial traffic, Iran has demonstrated it can inflict pain on the global economy, raising its geopolitical stature .

Pape has previously warned that the US cannot simply bomb its way out of the nuclear problem. “Even though we have that military capability, we need to prepare that if we do that, our troops in the region need to know there is a tremendous lash-back capability that will not be negated by those attacks,” he said .

📋 Key Takeaways for Reflecto News Readers

Follow Reflecto News for continuous updates on Iran’s nuclear program, international diplomatic efforts, and all breaking news from Washington and Tehran.

This article is the intellectual property of Reflecto News. Redistribution without attribution is prohibited. For syndication or media inquiries, please contact the editorial team.

Updated: April 30, 2026