Kupchan: ‘Don’t Give Up on America’ — But Europe Needs a Plan B as US Political Center Collapses

Reflecto News | Geopolitics | Transatlantic Relations

Professor Charles Kupchan, a leading transatlantic relations expert at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), has warned that America’s allies have no choice but to question US reliability — but urged them not to give up on the partnership, predicting that the US will eventually “be back.”

In remarks posted to X, Kupchan argued that the current rupture in transatlantic relations is not just about Donald Trump. Rather, the US political center’s collapse and the resulting unpredictability in foreign policy has created a prolonged state of dysfunction that allies cannot ignore.

“If you’re Germany, France, Japan or South Korea – you have no choice but to ask if America is still a reliable partner. The US is passing through prolonged dysfunction.”
— Prof. Charles Kupchan, CFR

🔄 ‘We All Have Whiplash’

Kupchan traced the current instability to a two-decade pattern of sharp swings in US foreign policy that have left allies disoriented.

The shift from Clinton (liberal internationalist) to Bush (unilateralist, neoconservative) to Obama (multilateralist) to Trump (America First) to Biden (reclaiming alliances) and back to Trump has created whiplash for US partners who cannot plan for the long term:

The cumulative effect has been to erase the assumption that the US will follow a consistent foreign policy regardless of who sits in the Oval Office. Allies can no longer make long-term plans based on the expectation that “America will be there.”

Kupchan identified the erosion of the political center as the root cause. The US political center — the mainstream consensus that supported liberal internationalism — has collapsed, and with it the transatlantic anchor:

• The collapse of moderate Republicans (the party of Dwight Eisenhower, which founded NATO) into a populist, nationalist party
• The weakening of centrist Democrats (the party of Harry Truman and John F. Kennedy) pulled left by the anti-war Sanders wing
• The loss of congressional consensus (the Senate no longer confirms ambassadors promptly, the House cannot pass aid packages without drama)

Kupchan acknowledged that Europeans are right to ask “if the relationship is over.” But he pushed back against Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s conclusion that it is an “irreversible rupture.”

“Calling it an irreversible rupture, as Mark Carney did, is too stark. There is a way back – not to some golden age, but to a restored partnership.”
— Prof. Charles Kupchan

🗺️ Every Country Needs a Plan B

Where Kupchan agrees with Carney: allies must prepare for the worst while hoping for the best. Europe cannot put all its strategic marbles in the US basket.

Germany has deepened economic ties with China (German automakers’ largest market is China) and invested in European defense integration (the European Sky Shield Initiative, the EU’s Strategic Compass).

France has called for European “strategic autonomy” and is leading efforts to build a European defense industrial base.

Japan is strengthening ties with Australia, India, and South Korea (the Quad +), while also exploring limited security cooperation with China.

South Korea is diversifying weapons exports and building independent intelligence capabilities.

Kupchan sees this diversification not as a rejection of the US, but as prudent hedging. “But don’t give up on America,” he counseled. “My best guess is we will be back.”

🔮 The Optimistic Scenario

Kupchan’s prediction that the US “will be back” rests on several assumptions:

• The political center will eventually re-form — either within the Republican Party or via a new centrist party
• Younger voters are more internationalist, less isolationist than their elders
• Structural advantages (geography, economy, military) will remain
• The alternative — a world without US leadership — is far less stable, and eventually even populist leaders will recognize this

But “be back” may not mean a return to the post-WWII era of overwhelming US dominance. Instead, Kupchan envisions a restored partnership in which Europe and Asia carry more of the burden, but the US remains the anchor of the liberal international order — a role that continues to serve American interests.

The next two to four years will be critical. If Trumpism becomes the permanent orientation of the Republican Party, and if Democrats also move toward economic nationalism, then Kupchan’s optimism may be misplaced. But for now, he is betting that the US will rediscover the value of alliances — even if the path back is long and uncertain.

📋 Key Takeaways

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