JUST IN: Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed Despite Ceasefire Agreement
Published on Reflecto News | World News | Energy Security & Geopolitics
Despite the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s most critical energy chokepoint—remains effectively closed. The waterway, through which approximately one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies normally pass, has seen no oil or gas tanker transits since the truce took effect, exposing a widening gap between diplomatic announcements and physical reality on the ground .
ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber delivered a stark assessment of the situation, declaring in a public statement that “conditional passage is not passage” and that the strait must be reopened “fully, unconditionally and without restriction” . His remarks came as Iran announced that no more than 15 vessels per day will be permitted to transit—a dramatic reduction from the pre-war average of 130-140 ships .
No Oil Tankers on First Day of Ceasefire
The first 24 hours after the ceasefire implementation painted a clear picture of the strait’s continued closure. Global ship-tracking firm Kpler confirmed that while four bulk carriers traversed the waterway, no oil or gas tankers made the journey—the very vessels highest in demand for global energy markets .
The situation deteriorated further following Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon, which prompted Iranian state media to announce that the strait was “fully closed” again. One vessel reportedly turned around mid-transit after Iranian forces blocked its passage, reflecting Tehran’s immediate response to events on the Lebanese front .
Kpler media relations manager Nikos Pothitakis summed up the situation succinctly: whatever the official status, the Strait of Hormuz was “pretty much closed” .
The 15-Ship Limit: A New Regulatory Framework
Iran has formally communicated a new transit regime to regional parties that fundamentally alters the strait’s status. According to a senior Iranian source speaking to Russian news agency TASS, under the current ceasefire, “fewer than 15 ships per day are permitted to transit the Strait of Hormuz” .
Key elements of this new framework include:
| Element | Details |
|---|---|
| Daily limit | No more than 15 vessels per day |
| Approval authority | Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) supervision |
| Approval requirement | Prior Iranian approval mandatory for each vessel |
| Designated routes | Narrow passage between Qeshm and Larak Islands |
| Status quo | “There will be no return to the pre-war status quo” |
Source: Senior Iranian source to TASS, IRGC statements
The IRGC has warned that “all vessels seeking to pass through the strait must coordinate with the IRGC Navy and use alternative routes,” adding that “ships attempting to pass without permission may be destroyed” . The designated route forces vessels through a narrow passage along the Iranian coast, enabling direct monitoring and control by Iranian forces.
ADNOC’s Warning: 230 Vessels Stranded
The human and economic toll of the continued closure is substantial. According to ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber, approximately 230 oil-laden vessels are currently loaded and waiting to sail, representing a massive backlog of global energy supply that cannot reach its destinations .
Al Jaber highlighted the critical juncture facing global energy markets:
“The final cargoes that transited the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict are now arriving at their destinations. This is where the paper traded markets are meeting physical reality, and the 40-day gap in global energy flows is truly exposed.”
He further warned that “every day the Strait remains restricted, the consequences compound… supply is delayed, markets tighten, prices rise” .
The backlog extends far beyond the vessels cited by ADNOC. According to shipping data, more than 800-1,000 ocean-going vessels remain trapped within the Gulf, including approximately 187 laden tankers carrying 172 million barrels of crude oil and refined products .
Conditional Passage: Iran’s Terms for Transit
Iran has established multiple conditions that vessels must satisfy before being permitted to transit:
1. Prior Coordination with Iranian Forces
Vessels must coordinate their movements with Iranian military authorities. The IRGC has established two designated “safe routes” that vessels must follow—both positioned to enable direct Iranian monitoring .
2. Prior Cargo Declaration
Iran now mandates that tankers submit cargo declarations before passage, with officials assessing each vessel’s eligibility on an individual basis .
3. Transit Fee Proposal
Perhaps the most contentious development is Iran’s proposal to impose a transit fee on vessels passing through the strait. According to shipping sources, the fee could amount to approximately $1 per barrel for oil cargoes, to be paid via virtual currency or Chinese yuan following prior agreements .
President Trump has reportedly suggested a potential “joint venture” model for toll collection between the US and Iran, raising concerns that tolls could become a permanent fixture in the vital waterway .
4. “Non-Hostile” Status
Vessels must demonstrate they are not linked to the US, Israel, or allied nations—a condition that effectively excludes many commercial carriers from consideration.
The Ceasefire Dispute: Lebanon’s Role
The strait’s continued closure is inextricably linked to events on the Lebanese front. Iran’s decision to reimpose restrictions followed Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon that killed over 250 people—strikes that Tehran considers a violation of the ceasefire’s intended scope .
This highlights a fundamental disagreement between the parties:
| Party | Position on Lebanon’s Inclusion |
|---|---|
| Iran & Pakistan | Ceasefire extends to Lebanon |
| US & Israel | Ceasefire “does not include Lebanon” |
| Hezbollah | Paused then resumed attacks following Israeli strikes |
Sources: Multiple news reports
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been unambiguous: “The two-week ceasefire does not include Lebanon” . However, Iranian officials have warned that continued Israeli strikes on Lebanese territory could cause Tehran to walk away from the ceasefire arrangement entirely.
Long-Term Normalization: A Two-Year Horizon?
Even if the strait were to reopen immediately, experts warn that full market normalization will take considerable time. The Korea Ocean Business Corporation (KOBC) has released an analysis suggesting that even after transit resumes, it could take more than two years for the shipping market to fully normalize .
The report identifies three stages of recovery:
| Stage | Timeline | Characteristics |
|---|---|---|
| Departure Rush | 1-8 weeks | Concentrated sailings creating initial bottlenecks |
| Wave Absorption | 2-6 months | Recurring bottlenecks gradually ease |
| Structural Normalization | 6-24+ months | Lifting of high-risk designation, insurance normalization |
Source: Korea Ocean Business Corporation report
Key structural factors delaying normalization include:
- VLCC Congestion: The laden ratio of Very Large Crude Carriers within the Persian Gulf has surged from 49% before the war to 95%
- Ballast Ratio Surge: The ballast ratio of VLCCs east of Hormuz jumped from 68% to 86%
- Insurance Premiums: War risk insurance remains elevated, with conservative shipowners likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach until insurance normalization is confirmed
The report emphasizes that “complete normalization is not possible through diplomatic declarations alone; substantial recovery, such as a decrease in insurance premiums, will only be possible after a sufficient amount of incident-free transit data has been accumulated” .
The Ceasefire’s Fragile Foundation
The current two-week ceasefire, announced by President Trump on April 7, was conditioned on Iran’s agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz. However, significant discrepancies between US and Iranian interpretations of the agreement’s terms have become increasingly apparent .
Iran has attached additional conditions to the ceasefire’s continuation:
- Asset Unfreezing: “The unfreezing of Iran’s blocked assets is a critical executive guarantee that must be realized within this two-week timeframe”
- UN Resolution: The end of the war must be formalized in a UN Security Council resolution
- No US Troop Increase: During the two-week period, the US cannot increase its military presence
- Nuclear Commitments: Iran remains committed to the agreed enrichment terms
“If the termination of the war is not codified into a UN Security Council resolution based on our stipulated terms, we are fully prepared to resume combat against the US and the Zionist regime—just as we have over the past 40 days, and with even greater intensity,” the Iranian source warned .
Global Impact: Why This Matters
The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz has far-reaching implications for the global economy:
Oil Prices: Despite the ceasefire announcement, prices remain significantly above pre-conflict levels, with Brent crude hovering near $100 per barrel.
Asian Economies: Approximately 80% of Gulf oil shipments are destined for Asian markets, where half the world’s population lives. The closure directly threatens energy security across the continent.
Industrial Commodities: Beyond oil and LNG, the strait handles 50% of the world’s sulphur and nearly 30% of global urea and ammonia—all vital to fertilizer manufacturing and global food security.
Shipping Industry: The massive backlog and elevated insurance premiums have effectively reduced global tanker capacity, driving up freight costs for all maritime trade.
The Path Forward: Islamabad Talks
The fate of the strait—and potentially the global economy—now rests on high-level negotiations scheduled to take place in Islamabad, where US and Iranian delegations are expected to meet. The talks, mediated by Pakistan, represent the first direct diplomatic engagement between the two nations since the ceasefire was announced .
Key questions that will determine the outcome:
- Will the US accept Iran’s 15-ship limit or demand a return to pre-war traffic levels?
- Can a compromise be reached on transit fees, or will this remain a sticking point?
- Will the ceasefire be extended to Lebanon, or will that front continue to undermine the truce?
- What role, if any, will the US play in any toll collection mechanism?
Conclusion: A Managed Crisis, Not a Resolution
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed despite the ceasefire agreement—a reality that exposes the limits of diplomatic declarations in the face of entrenched strategic interests. Iran’s imposition of a 15-ship daily limit, IRGC supervision requirements, and proposed transit fees represent a fundamental shift in the waterway’s status, transforming passage from a guaranteed right under international law into a negotiated and monetized privilege.
For ADNOC and the 230 loaded tankers waiting to sail, for the global energy markets facing supply uncertainty, and for the millions who depend on stable energy prices, the message is clear: the ceasefire may have paused direct military hostilities, but the economic warfare—manifested in controlled access to the world’s most important energy chokepoint—continues.
As Sultan Al Jaber concluded, “Stability now depends on restoring real flows. Not partial access, not temporary measures, not controlled passage, but full and reliable supply. That is how we slow the economic shockwave already moving through the system” .
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. Is the Strait of Hormuz open or closed despite the ceasefire?
The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. While a ceasefire was announced, no oil or gas tankers transited the strait on the first day of the truce. Iran has imposed a strict limit of 15 vessels per day, requiring prior approval and IRGC supervision .
2. How many ships are currently stranded?
Approximately 230 oil-laden vessels are loaded and waiting to sail according to ADNOC. Broader shipping data indicates more than 800-1,000 ocean-going vessels remain trapped within the Gulf, including 187 laden tankers carrying 172 million barrels of crude .
3. What conditions has Iran imposed for passage?
Iran requires prior coordination with Iranian forces, approval from the IRGC, use of designated routes (between Qeshm and Larak Islands), cargo declarations, and payment of proposed transit fees (approximately $1 per barrel) .
4. Has any vessel transited since the ceasefire?
Four bulk carriers transited on the first day, but no oil or gas tankers have made the journey. One vessel reportedly turned around mid-transit after Iranian forces blocked passage following Israeli strikes on Lebanon .
5. Why did Iran reimpose restrictions after the ceasefire?
Iran announced the strait was “fully closed” again following Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon that killed over 250 people. Tehran considers these strikes a violation of the ceasefire’s intended scope .
6. Does the ceasefire apply to Lebanon?
This is a major point of dispute. Iran and Pakistan maintain that the ceasefire includes Lebanon, but the United States and Israel have explicitly denied this. Prime Minister Netanyahu has stated that “the two-week ceasefire does not include Lebanon” .
7. How long will it take for shipping to normalize if the strait reopens?
According to the Korea Ocean Business Corporation, full normalization could take more than two years. The process involves three stages: departure rush (1-8 weeks), wave absorption (2-6 months), and structural normalization (6-24+ months) .
8. What is ADNOC’s position on the situation?
ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber has called for the strait to be reopened “fully, unconditionally and without restriction,” stating that “conditional passage is not passage” and warning that controlled access is disrupting global energy flows .
9. What is Iran demanding in exchange for reopening?
Iran demands the unfreezing of its blocked assets within two weeks, a UN Security Council resolution formalizing the end of the war, no increase in US troop presence during the ceasefire, and adherence to agreed nuclear terms .
10. What happens next?
US and Iranian delegations are scheduled to meet in Islamabad for high-level negotiations mediated by Pakistan. The outcome of these talks will likely determine whether the strait’s restrictions are eased or tightened .
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