BREAKING: Brent crude surges above $119.50 per barrel, highest since June 2022
Reflecto News | Breaking News | Global Energy Markets
LONDON/NEW YORK — Brent crude oil futures surged above $119.50 per barrel on Wednesday, reaching the highest level since June 2022 as the prolonged war with Iran continues to choke global supplies through the strategic Strait of Hormuz .
The international benchmark climbed more than seven percent in intraday trading, briefly touching $119.50 before settling at $119.34 — a dramatic surge from pre-war levels of approximately $70-73 per barrel .
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also jumped 7.31 percent to $107.24 per barrel .
Why prices are spiking
The price surge comes as the two-month war shows no sign of resolution, with the critical Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20 percent of the world’s oil normally passes — remaining largely closed to commercial traffic .
Key drivers of the price spike include:
- The naval blockade: President Trump has ordered the U.S. Navy to maintain and potentially intensify the blockade of Iranian ports, which has cut Iranian oil exports by an estimated 70 percent
- Supply disruptions: An estimated 7.5 to 9.1 million barrels per day of crude and products supply have been removed from global markets during March and April
- Record inventory draws: Global oil inventories are drawing down at an unprecedented pace of 11-12 million barrels per day
- Failed diplomacy: The White House has rejected Iran’s latest three-phase proposal to end the war, which would have postponed nuclear negotiations while reopening the strait
Market impact
Global equities fell sharply on Wednesday as investors grew concerned that prolonged supply disruptions could trigger a broader economic slowdown .
The United States Oil Fund (USO) , which tracks WTI crude prices, has rallied more than 70 percent since the conflict began on February 28 .
U.S. gasoline prices have also climbed, with the national average reaching $4.23 per gallon — a new wartime high [citation:none]. Diesel prices have surged even faster, rising 45 percent since the start of the conflict.
Analyst forecasts
Major financial institutions have raised their oil price forecasts amid the growing crisis:
- ING Research raised its Q2 Brent forecast to $104 per barrel, up from $96 previously, noting that “peace talks between the US and Iran stall, and with no immediate signs of a resumption in flows through the Strait of Hormuz”
- Goldman Sachs raised its outlook, warning that “the economic risks are larger than our crude base case alone suggests because of the net upside risks to oil prices”
- S&P Global adjusted its 2026 assumptions to $100 per barrel for Brent and $95 for WTI
Analysts warn that prices could climb even higher if the stalemate persists. A “severely adverse” scenario, assuming delayed normalization of Gulf exports and permanent capacity losses, could push Brent toward $120 per barrel .
The political backdrop
The price surge comes as President Trump faces a critical May 1 deadline under the War Powers Resolution, which limits the president’s authority to conduct military hostilities without congressional authorization to 60 days .
While Trump has extended the ceasefire unilaterally, the underlying conflict remains unresolved. The Pentagon has confirmed that the war has cost the U.S. approximately $25 billion so far .
Meanwhile, Iran has demanded a “new legal regime” for the Strait of Hormuz as part of any peace deal, effectively seeking permanent control over the waterway — a condition the White House has rejected as unacceptable [citation:none].
What comes next
- Diplomatic window: Iran has requested additional days to consult with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei before submitting a revised proposal
- Military option: The Pentagon has prepared plans for a “short and powerful” wave of strikes as a contingency, though President Trump has not authorized military action
- Blockade strategy: The administration intends to maintain economic pressure indefinitely, betting that Iran’s economy will collapse before American political will erodes
For now, consumers are feeling the pain at the pump. And until the Strait of Hormuz reopens, analysts see little relief on the horizon.
📋 Key Takeaways for Reflecto News Readers
| Aspect | Summary |
|---|---|
| Brent crude price | $119.50+ per barrel — highest since June 2022 |
| U.S. crude (WTI) | $107.24 per barrel (+7.31%) |
| Supply loss | 7.5-9.1 million barrels/day off global markets |
| U.S. gas price | $4.23/gallon national average |
| Oil fund rally | USO up 70%+ since war began |
| War cost to U.S. | $25 billion and counting |
| War Powers deadline | May 1, 2026 (60-day limit) |
| Analyst Q2 forecast | $104/barrel (ING) |
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