Belgian Defence Minister Francken: ‘You Cannot Neglect Your Armed Forces for 30 Years and Fix It in 30 Months’

Reflecto News | Europe | Defense & Security

BRUSSELS — Belgian Defence Minister Theo Francken has warned that there are no quick fixes to the crisis in European defense, cautioning that three decades of neglect cannot be undone in just thirty months.

Speaking to a defense conference in Brussels, Francken acknowledged the urgency of rearmament but called for realistic timelines, reflecting the growing frustration among smaller NATO members who feel they are scrambling to catch up after the post‑Cold War peace dividend.

“You cannot neglect your armed forces for 30 years, and fix it in 30 months. It takes time.”
— Theo Francken, Belgian Defence Minister

📉 30 Years of Neglect: A Legacy of the Peace Dividend

Francken’s “30 years” refers to the period between the end of the Cold War (early 1990s) and Russia’s full‑scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Throughout these decades, European NATO members drastically reduced defense spending.

• Declining Budgets: Many nations cut defense spending to 1–1.5% of GDP, far below NATO’s 2% guideline.
• Reduced Manpower: Compulsory military service was widely abolished; active troop numbers dropped significantly.
• Deferred Procurement: Equipment modernization cycles were delayed; warships, fighter jets, and armored vehicles grew obsolete.
• Munitions Stockpiles: NATO European members reduced ammunition reserves, assuming that future conflicts would be short and that U.S. forces would carry the burden.

Belgium was a prime example. Its armed forces are small, aging, and heavily reliant on foreign partnerships for critical capabilities—such as sharing nuclear weapons under NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangement .

⏳ 30 Months: The War’s ‘Fog of Realisation’

Francken’s “30 months” refers roughly to the period from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (February 2022) to the present. In that time, European governments pledged massive increases in defense spending—but delivery has lagged.

The Belgian minister’s warning is that even with the political will, reconstructing the military industrial base takes years. “You cannot accelerate building new ammunition plants from zero to 100% in a few months,” one Belgian defence official added. “In the meantime, you have to feed Ukraine’s artillery hunger, and that drains your own stocks.”

Francken’s caution also speaks to a broader unease. The war in Ukraine has become a grinding war of attrition, with Ukraine firing thousands of artillery shells per day. The Iran war has added a new front, diverting US attention and resources while Europe fears it will be left to manage the eastern flank alone.

💡 The Risk of Burnout

Francken’s words also mask a fear of “Ukraine fatigue” and “Iran fatigue.” The public and politicians may tire of war, yet rebuilding the armed forces requires sustained investment for a decade or more.

Simply writing a big check in 2022 will not produce a trained, well‑equipped army in 2025. It takes time to recruit, train, and retain soldiers, and to procure advanced weapon systems. Belgium aims to increase its defense budget to €30 billion (exceeding 2% of GDP) by 2035—13 years after the invasion of Ukraine. Francken is asking for patience and consistency.

“There is no magic wand,” he said. “We must be honest with the public: a credible conventional deterrent is a generational investment.”

🛡️ Belgium’s Defense Renaissance: What Is Actually Being Done

Despite the caution, Belgium has not stood still. Under Francken, the government has launched several major procurement programs:

• F‑35 Acquisition: Belgium is replacing its aging F‑16s with 34 F‑35A Lightning II fighters, making it only the second European operator after the Netherlands.
• Armored Vehicles: The Griffon multi‑role armored vehicle program is intended to modernize army mobility.
• NATO Command Structure: Belgium hosts both the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU) command and a new land component command for NATO’s eastern flank.
• Mine Countermeasures: Belgium is part of a joint Belgian‑Dutch replacement program for mine‑hunting vessels.

However, deliveries of many of these systems will stretch into the next decade, aligning with Francken’s timeline that 30 months is not enough. Belgium will reach the 2% of GDP target only by 2035, though some allies have urged it to accelerate the schedule.

🇪🇺 European Implications: The Danger of ‘Performative Rearmament’

Francken’s warning has implications beyond Belgium. Several European countries have announced plans to increase defense spending, but the actual cash may not flow without concrete budget allocations.

Francken cautioned against “performative rearmament”—that is, making speeches announcing grand plans but failing to appropriate the multi‑year funding needed to sustain them. “We must invest, yes, but we must invest consistently. Not just for the next budget cycle, but for the next 10 years.”

The minister also suggested that European defense cooperation must deepen. No single European country can field a full‑spectrum military; they must co‑develop equipment, share logistics, and integrate commands. Francken has backed the Belgian‑Dutch naval cooperation and hopes to extend such pooling to other domains, such as ammunition stockpiles and air defense.

🔮 What Comes Next

Francken’s realism is essential preparation for the long haul. The war in Ukraine is not ending soon; the Iran conflict is a new drain; and NATO’s strategic concept now explicitly acknowledges Russia as the “most significant and direct threat.”

Belgium (and Europe) must produce more munitions, train more troops, and field more deployable units. There is no short‑cut—”you cannot neglect your armed forces for 30 years, and fix it in 30 months.”

📋 Key Takeaways for Reflecto News Readers

Aspect	Summary
Francken’s Warning	Neglected for 30 years; cannot fix in 30 months. Requires sustained, generational investment.
The 30 Years	Post‑Cold War “peace dividend” saw defense cuts across Europe.
The 30 Months	Roughly since Russia’s full‑scale invasion of Ukraine (Feb 2022).
The Reality Check	No magic wand—training, procurement, and industrial capacity take time.
Belgium’s Progress	F‑35 purchase, armored vehicle program, NATO commands—but 2% of GDP only by 2035.
European Implication	Danger of “performative rearmament” without sustained funding. Belgium backs deeper EU defense cooperation.
Long‑Term Threat	Ukraine war, Iran conflict, and Russian revanchism will require European readiness for a decade or more.

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