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TEHRAN / ISLAMABAD — In a high-stakes intelligence alert issued on Wednesday evening, March 25, 2026, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf claimed that “enemies of Iran”—specifically the United States and Israel—are preparing a ground operation to occupy a strategic Iranian island. In a defiant post on X (formerly Twitter), Ghalibaf warned that the alleged plan is being supported by an “unnamed country in the region” and vowed a devastating retaliatory strike against that nation’s domestic stability.
The warning comes as the 82nd Airborne Division and multiple Marine Expeditionary Units arrive in the Persian Gulf, marking the largest U.S. military mobilization in the region since 2003.
The “Regional Supporter” Ultimatum
Ghalibaf’s message was a direct threat to the Arab neighbors of the Persian Gulf, signaling that Iran will not limit its response to U.S. forces if its territory is breached.
- The Intelligence Claim: Ghalibaf stated that Iranian armed forces are monitoring “all enemy movements” in real-time. “Based on some data, the enemies… with the support of one of the countries in the region, are preparing an operation to occupy one of Iran’s islands,” he wrote.
- The Retaliatory Doctrine: He warned that if any step is taken toward an invasion, “all vital infrastructure of that regional country will be targeted without restrictions by relentless and unceasing attacks.”
- Identifying the Target: While Ghalibaf did not name the country, regional analysts and Al Jazeera reports suggest the warning is likely directed at the United Arab Emirates (UAE) or Kuwait, both of which host significant U.S. military assets.
Primary Target: Kharg Island?
While the Speaker did not specify the island, military experts and the Soufan Center suggest that Kharg Island—Iran’s primary crude oil export terminal—is the most likely objective of a U.S. ground maneuver.
| Strategic Value | Potential U.S. Objective |
| Economic “Veto” | Control over Kharg would give the U.S. leverage over 90% of Iran’s oil exports. |
| Nuclear Security | Some intelligence suggests ground teams may be tasked with securing sensitive material from coastal sites. |
| Hormuz Opening | Seizing the island could be a precursor to a wider operation to forcibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz. |
The “Ghalibaf Factor” in Negotiations
The timing of Ghalibaf’s warning is particularly complex given his reported role as a potential backchannel for the Trump administration.
- The “Kushner-Witkoff” Connection: Despite his public denials, multiple reports suggest that U.S. envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff have attempted to engage Ghalibaf as a “pragmatic partner” for the 15-point ceasefire plan.
- Internal Pressure: In Tehran, hardliners have labeled these reports as a “psychological operation” intended to sow division within the Iranian leadership. Ghalibaf’s aggressive rhetoric regarding the island invasion is seen by some as an attempt to “re-establish his revolutionary credentials” amid these rumors.
What’s Next?
As the Friday, March 27 deadline approaches, the threat of an island invasion has moved the conflict from a “grid war” to a potential “territorial war.” If U.S. paratroopers or Marines attempt a landing tomorrow, Iran has made it clear that the “vital infrastructure” of the entire Persian Gulf will be on the target list.
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